short setup on AUD/CAD

🧠 Market Sentiment by Timeframe

Weekly (W): Bearish

Daily (D): Bullish

12H, 6H, 4H: Bearish

Bias: Short-term continuation to the downside after retest of supply/imbalance.

🔍 Technical Breakdown
🔴 1. Structure & Momentum

Price broke down from previous 4H support (~0.88900–0.89000) creating a lower low.

A bearish BOS confirms momentum shift.

Price is now consolidating below the 200 EMA and 50 EMA → indicating bearish pressure.

🟥 2. Weekly AOI / Supply Zone

Red box above (0.89058–0.89307) marks Weekly AOI (Supply).

It represents a strong resistance area where price previously sold off.

Expected lower high (LH) to form at the retest of this supply.

🟦 3. Trade Plan

Entry Zone: Anticipated pullback into 0.88922–0.89058 (Daily AOI + 200 EMA resistance).

Stop Loss: Above the Weekly AOI at ~0.89307.

Take Profit (TP): Toward the Daily AOI around 0.88000–0.87999, a previous demand zone.

RR: Over 2:1 potential, depending on exact entry.

🔵 4. EMA Dynamics

Price currently sits below both the 50 EMA (blue) and 200 EMA (red), confirming bearish alignment.

EMAs act as dynamic resistance zones, giving confluence to the short.

📉 Bearish Confluences

Bearish market structure on 4H, 6H, 12H.

EMA crossover and rejection.

Weekly AOI = major supply.

Daily AOI just rejected.

Anticipated lower high to form before continuation.

✅ Summary of Setup

Type: Counter-trend against Daily bullish bias, with HTF bearish confirmation.

Setup: Pullback → rejection → short continuation.

Target: Clean sweep of liquidity near 0.8800 Daily AOI.