AUDCAD Pending short

I entered a pending short on AUDCAD from Nov 22nd two weeks ago based on

- The fundamental weakness of AUD from the RBA minute that had revealed the discussion of possible rate cut during the last meeting, and the prevailing analysis of rate cut to the next meeting.

-The previous market sentiment over BOC dovish stance, to the newest comment by BOC that the rate cut is not in consideration.

Finally, the fact that U.S passed the HK legislation which turned the market sentiment to risk off.


Currently, this trade is still in play with adequate risk/reward ratio, however, this week we will have

RBA cash rate
&
BOC cash rate
&
CAD Employment data

All tier one data might change the sentiment of CAD & AUD

but I'm still planning to hold the trade over these news because fundamentally, CAD is having a much stronger economy than AUD and the interest rate difference is also very large.

However, if you're not in this trade, I will suggest to stay out after the BOC event on Wednesday EST.

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Written on Dec 3rd
Although we had a very weak USD today to help the CAD, the global equities all went down to signal a risk off sentiment - usually it also meant a weak AUD, however, because of the RBA statement tonight, although the rate was held but the statement was less dovish than market's expectation - therefore, AUD jumped up across the board and stopped out our trade.

I personally got stopped out, but as mentioned, I hope none of you have taken this trade as I was cautious about not only the RBA event but also the BOC event on Wednesday.

If AUD remains strong, then depend on the BOC event, we might have a weak CAD to keep the AUDCAD to the upsdie, vise-versa, we might have a strong BOC to cause a strong CAD and change the direction of AUD.

Again, it is much better wait after these events to have a clear fundamental picture.