We have seen a pullback on the weekly and daily timeframes for this pair. There was a strong bullish pin bar candle on the daily time timeframe Friday bouncing off the 200 EMA(Green).We would be looking for possible entries on the 1HR or 4HR timeframes. Entries would be taken if price bounces off or away from the 20 EMA(Blue), we also have the 20 EMA and 50EMA crossover. Very similar trade is also setting up on NZD/JPY. While the labour market is still very tight, the RBA should see the combination of moderating inflation and a low unemployment rate as positive. It does, after all, suggest Australia is still on that narrow path to lowering inflation while still preserving the post-COVID labour market gains. While the US may have a different inflation/unemployment trade-off, we note that it has seen a reasonable decline in inflation without an increase in the unemployment rate. All that said, we would not entirely rule out a rate rise in August.
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This is the type of entries we would look for on the 1HR timeframe.
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We are now at the trendline on the 4HR Chart and overbought on the RSI. We would prefer a deeper pullback on the on the 4HR Chart before looking at entries.