AUDUSD
4H technical analysis indicates potential continuation of downtrend through Q3 2018 with the formation of a bearish flag. The Apr-May 2018 flag pole begins at the Jan 2018 downtrend resistance. Following the break of Jan 2016 uptrend support, price action has consolidated into a range of approximately 150 pips. Once price action reaches Jan 2018 downtrend resistance, which has held throughout the first half of the year, resistance is expected to hold near 0.7640 before downtrend continuation. Technical analysis convention dictates the price target to be the same distance as the bearish flag pole -- in this case, approximately 400 pips, yielding a price target of 0.7240. This thesis will be deemed incorrect if price action reaches above 0.7689, or 38% retracement of the Jan-May 2018 downtrend, at which point a new thesis will be drawn. Until the thesis fails, the strategy is to find opportunities to short
AUDUSD
on lower time frames, i.e. 15/5/1 min, if/once price action reaches 0.7604 or breaches May 2018 bearish flag support.