AUDUSD: Bears Can Take This Market To .7400 Or Lower.

AUDUSD update: Although this pair has demonstrated some recent strength, it is still being dominated by bearish momentum. Along with the other U.S. Dollar crosses, this market is likely to push the .7400 area low.

Lower highs often lead to lower lows. The high at .7605 is the most recent peak which is relatively lower than the previous high around .7813. A short term retrace such as the one off the .7400 area low can be confusing or even tempting to buy.

Keep in mind, timing minor higher lows is a feasible strategy but only for day trading in my opinion. Since the bigger picture momentum is bearish, it is possible to capture maybe 30 pips on an intraday retrace, but you must be on top of it since potential is more on the bear side.

Often, the higher probability strategy is to either wait for price to retest a resistance again which is around the .7563 area (.382 of recent bearish structure). Or wait for a continuation pattern such as an inside bar for an entry on the side of the momentum.

The first potential target for a short is in the .7450 area. The second is the .7374 reversal zone boundary. These levels offer an idea of how low this market can go if a short signal appears.

In summary, knowing the reward/risk potential of your time frame is key to choosing a trade. When counter trend setups appear, they carry much greater risk since so much is working against you. If you take the higher risk trade, you must compensate with more conservative targets and smaller time frames in order to increase your chances of coming out with a profitable trade. This is the realm of the day trader and is not a good idea for the less experienced trader, especially in the forex markets.

I am watching this pair for a swing trade setup on the short side, but there is nothing to report yet. I will issue the signal on S.C. if anything worthwhile appears.