jichen7777

Since last time, BA is crazy.

NYSE:BA   BOEING COMPANY (THE)
If you see my latest BA analysis, you probably have a big smile on your face. It has already 100+ per share as profit. But this trend is starting to makes worry. I don't believe that the stock price gonna more than 500 usd. There is a news that the Airbus will get a big air plane agreement with Chinese government. And it seems like, 320 neo probably is better then 737 max.

Airbus is good at the short route business, after they acquire C series production line. Comparing with BA, the cost of 737 is much higher then using Airbus products.

BA has a greater innovation then Airbus, the example is next coming 777x.

Think about what is the trend of aerospace development.
AIR BUS announced that they received 1000 airplanes orders which is more than Boeing.
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I'm a fundamentals guy so I am having a bit of trouble understanding this current love affair. Solid well run company. I went into this company back in middle of July 17 when this think with the DPRK heated up. A long with a number of other defense industry stocks (LMT, NOC, RTN, etc,) all did well, but then again the entire market did well. I've pretty well dumped all of it but BA and NOC, but what am I missing, I sold a bunch of BA puts at $312 and got burned on those ... so one wonders, what is holding this valuation up? I mean today's I want it now mentality has driven air freight rates through the roof and they need more planes, but what is the story here. Do you have any thoughts?
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@fronk, hey fronk, i have tried three times to reply your message but i don't know why systme or web not allowed me to write more and always flash escape witout any saving draft. I would said just foucing low cost airline market, the big demand of airplane are from this market; as the business solution of these low cost airline ,the air plane lesaing companies and captials support them to low the cost and will be the big customers of BA and AirBus, Those companys will from China, and Chinese government is the back supporter in finance. Airbus is dealing with Chinese government right now to save its A380 line,using A380 technology helping Chines big areoplane development to excahnge the A380 deal from China. Airbus has already treaten BA's share of market. Delta has deal with Airbus about A320 neo and indigo captial 435 of A320 neo. Except a350 xwb 900 is more expensive with same level product: 777-200lr and 787-10. Others are cheaper than BA's. A350 is earlier than 777X entering the market. The company like cathey pacific have already choose A350 to instead of B777. From the technical way: DEBT/CAPTIAL 89% and Prce/ cash flow is 29.45. I am actually a BA fan because of its innovation , i am avation ethusiat, BA's plane is easier to fly then Airbus's . But becarefull to trade.
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fronk jichen7777
@jichen7777, thanks for the response kitchen. I put in all my stop losses but I figure I'll hang on until it begins to drop badly. One thing about Boeing is that they also generate cash on the military side, space systems, and on some really great customer service business they provide (#2 in the world after AAR) but the current performance is coming from ... where? Thanks for your response.
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@fronk, Hey, fronk, wish you have a great weekend. To be honestly, i have no idea about BA in Military. One thing that i am sure is trump put BA and LMT together into a competition because the high price of F35, BA is starting to work on new generation of F18 and a new model of UAV tanker. I believe that the future of air battle is UAV. like movie "Terminator" , a skynet-like system is being developed. Son BA wish get more financial support for government. Also, BA has two order of new generation of Air Force one based on B787-8. For the current performance, i would say BA is not good at military market. On the other hand, you need to consider about Trump's policy and the relationship with International partners. Don't forget that C-17 's story .
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@fronk, Consider the T-X competition where Boeing is collaborating with Saab for a new Air Force trainer to replace the ageing T-38 fleet. If Boeing wins, it would definitely boost their bottom line. Also, despite Boeing losing the Canadian Super-Hornet contract, there is still significant interest in the F-15 two-seater Strike Eagle, mainly in the Persian Gulf states (F-15SA, F-15QA). Even the Israelis are considering purchasing more F-15I’s.

Many countries are also having second thoughts about purchasing Lockheed’s F-35, at least at this point in time. There are several reasons for that, one being that its software, the autonomic logistics information system (or ALIS) might be vulnerable to theft or hacking. Only the Israelis are permitted to modify ALIS.
Boeing is also the primary contractor for the Ground Based Missile defense program (GMD) and will play an important role in replacing the U.S. Minuteman III with the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent missile (GBSD).

So, IMHO, Boeing will remain a significant player in fighter aircraft and space systems for the foreseeable future...
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