PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 19 JAN 2023 expiry
Honestly was expecting a turbulent and volatile expiry day today after 
SPX fell 1.56% & 
DJI 1.81% overnight.
I was quite shocked to see
BANKNIFTY pre-open rate of only -0.1% & i assumed we may tank close to 1.5 to 2% today. But what turned out was a boring choppy day in a narrowest possible range i have seen after Covid 2022 lockdown.
I got into the option in the opening 2mts itself and got good premiums and by 9.39 i saw the premium decay was okay enough and squared off the positions with the intend to re-enter once the premium spikes again.
I never got the reentry, in fact the collapse in options premium is again something i havent seen after Mar 2020. This is mainly because bank nifty did not swing at all today (only 272 pts between HOD and LOD) which means a swing of 0.3% from the median point.
Was i frustrated to lose out a re-entry - absolutely YES. But it never occurred to me to get into a selling position with the premium so low. So i just sat out and made peace with that decision.
Now coming back to trade set up tomorrow, i still believe we should swing the same way as the global trend is swinging. Today may be was expiry level positioning - if the US market fall continues, we wont be spared tomorrow.
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The bank nifty components did make swing today, but whoever played the game today to keep the index in the range - really succeeded.
HDFCBANK stayed positive right from the start and the range of swing today was 0.92%
ICICIBANK had a swing of 0.97% today, but the price action was on the negative side
SBIN had a swing of only 0.7% again the trade with a minor negative bias
AXISBANK had a whooping 1.87% traded range today, the opening candle bringing huge volume as well. Final close was in green
KOTAKBANK had a huge swing of 2.14%. the first candle itself contributing to 79% of that
INDUSINDBK had the highest swing of unbelievable 4.89% with the bias to the negative side
Now it really makes sense not to believe that BN index remained in a short range today !
---
15mts & 1hr are not showing bullishness as the resistance level is not taken out, today's slow choppiness to the negative side may indicate the bulls are taking a short break. Sudden swings may wake them up!
to view the 4 images discussed in the report today, contact viswaram
SPX fell 1.56% & DJI 1.81% overnight.I was quite shocked to see
BANKNIFTY pre-open rate of only -0.1% & i assumed we may tank close to 1.5 to 2% today. But what turned out was a boring choppy day in a narrowest possible range i have seen after Covid 2022 lockdown.I got into the option in the opening 2mts itself and got good premiums and by 9.39 i saw the premium decay was okay enough and squared off the positions with the intend to re-enter once the premium spikes again.
I never got the reentry, in fact the collapse in options premium is again something i havent seen after Mar 2020. This is mainly because bank nifty did not swing at all today (only 272 pts between HOD and LOD) which means a swing of 0.3% from the median point.
Was i frustrated to lose out a re-entry - absolutely YES. But it never occurred to me to get into a selling position with the premium so low. So i just sat out and made peace with that decision.
Now coming back to trade set up tomorrow, i still believe we should swing the same way as the global trend is swinging. Today may be was expiry level positioning - if the US market fall continues, we wont be spared tomorrow.
---
The bank nifty components did make swing today, but whoever played the game today to keep the index in the range - really succeeded.
HDFCBANK stayed positive right from the start and the range of swing today was 0.92%ICICIBANK had a swing of 0.97% today, but the price action was on the negative sideSBIN had a swing of only 0.7% again the trade with a minor negative biasAXISBANK had a whooping 1.87% traded range today, the opening candle bringing huge volume as well. Final close was in greenKOTAKBANK had a huge swing of 2.14%. the first candle itself contributing to 79% of thatINDUSINDBK had the highest swing of unbelievable 4.89% with the bias to the negative sideNow it really makes sense not to believe that BN index remained in a short range today !
---
15mts & 1hr are not showing bullishness as the resistance level is not taken out, today's slow choppiness to the negative side may indicate the bulls are taking a short break. Sudden swings may wake them up!
to view the 4 images discussed in the report today, contact viswaram
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