UPDATE: Bitcoin macro view, non-linear regression
This is an update to my earlier post:
When I shared that chart, I emphasized that it was merely enternainment and it didn't have any predictive value to me, AT ALL. I still have this point of view. Even though it might work out in the end, it must be understood that what I'm drawing here is some next level chart fitting. Humans have a tendency to see patterns where there are none, which might very well be true here as well.
So, with that out of the way, you'll notice we are getting closer to our baseline curve. I said in my previous post I'd be starting up my weekly buy ins again if we ever got closer to that baseline. So far I haven't, partly due to fear. I still believe in Bitcoins long-term value proposition, but buying after big drawdowns reguires balls of steel that I apparently do not have. Price is still more than 4x above my last buy, and roughly 8x above my average buy in.
For those paying attention to the details: yes, I have adjusted the curves downward a bit (if you hit play in my old chart, youll see the price is closer to baseline than in this new chart). I'm not entirely sure how to draw these. I;m unsure of the regression model parameters, so I'm eyeballing it a bit as well. Baseline currently sits at around 2500 dollar. I have it even lower in another chart of mine. As I said, next level chart fitting.. Guess we'll have to wait for a few more months, so we can retrofit these curves ;).
Long term: bullish . Short term: who the hell knows..
Stay safe everyone!
When I shared that chart, I emphasized that it was merely enternainment and it didn't have any predictive value to me, AT ALL. I still have this point of view. Even though it might work out in the end, it must be understood that what I'm drawing here is some next level chart fitting. Humans have a tendency to see patterns where there are none, which might very well be true here as well.
So, with that out of the way, you'll notice we are getting closer to our baseline curve. I said in my previous post I'd be starting up my weekly buy ins again if we ever got closer to that baseline. So far I haven't, partly due to fear. I still believe in Bitcoins long-term value proposition, but buying after big drawdowns reguires balls of steel that I apparently do not have. Price is still more than 4x above my last buy, and roughly 8x above my average buy in.
For those paying attention to the details: yes, I have adjusted the curves downward a bit (if you hit play in my old chart, youll see the price is closer to baseline than in this new chart). I'm not entirely sure how to draw these. I;m unsure of the regression model parameters, so I'm eyeballing it a bit as well. Baseline currently sits at around 2500 dollar. I have it even lower in another chart of mine. As I said, next level chart fitting.. Guess we'll have to wait for a few more months, so we can retrofit these curves ;).
Long term: bullish . Short term: who the hell knows..
Stay safe everyone!
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