Is it true that $BTC correlates with M2? Spoiler alert: not real

🗣In the last month, I have seen a hyper-fixation on the correlation of M2 with Bitcoin, as in red analysis with predictions such as a failure under 60K in February.

I don't entirely agree with this analysis.

📍First, most of the analyses I have seen show such a correlation only for the last year (black frame). Do you know why? Because in previous years, the correlations were many times smaller, and you cannot make such good matches.

📍Second, you can look at the white square. There is not too much logic in Bitcoin perfectly following the outdated money metric. In 2022, Bitcoin fell from 50K to 20K while M2 continued to grow, a three-month lead there does not really fit.

💡To sum up, M2 sometimes correlates with Bitcoin, but it is not often, and the 3-month shift is nothing more than a convenient data fit. You need to look at the big picture and not fall in love with one model or metric.