Comparing Two Cycles
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Taking a cycle to be from the previous base to the next one]
Though some say BTC has experienced 4 cycles, I'm going to compare what I think are the two major cycles. Given the nature of the growth curve, and the implication of reducing volatility [in the macro] that comes with it, arguably it makes sense to see these two cycles of equal duration... they certainly are of equal retracement as at the present moment.. 27%.
In the first 'immature' cycle right at the beginning, I take the basing period, after the hyper-volatility to both sides, as the start of the first major cycle. Measuring from base to base gives 177 weeks, and then measuring again, for the second cycle, gives another 177 weeks if the base is to be extended to the end of the year.
A look at the Bollinger Bands, the volatility indicator, shows that we are presently in a similar range that has previous marked cycle bottoms.
This from a recent article surely has to be problematic:
"Since 2010, there have been 4 bull cycles followed by 4 bear cycles. The average bull market lasts 449 days, and bear markets have lasted an average of 306 days, a ratio of 1.47. The last bull market lasted 818 days, so by this methodology our bear market length should be about 557 days, or an additional 241 days to the current 316 day bear market."
cryptoglobe.com/latest/2018/11/top-analysts-look-at-past-bitcoin-price-cycles-to-predict-the-return-of-volatility/
Finally, the main clue going forward has to be the growth curve, which currently has price relatively close to it - this cycle and correction was not nearly as large as the previous one, which overshot and undershot the curve to a higher degree. Given that price is currently nearer the mean, this would suggest that the next cycle will not be as large again. And all of this is based on the idea of reducing volatility in the macro. Various momentum indicators attest to this such as the following MACD and BB-
Though some say BTC has experienced 4 cycles, I'm going to compare what I think are the two major cycles. Given the nature of the growth curve, and the implication of reducing volatility [in the macro] that comes with it, arguably it makes sense to see these two cycles of equal duration... they certainly are of equal retracement as at the present moment.. 27%.
In the first 'immature' cycle right at the beginning, I take the basing period, after the hyper-volatility to both sides, as the start of the first major cycle. Measuring from base to base gives 177 weeks, and then measuring again, for the second cycle, gives another 177 weeks if the base is to be extended to the end of the year.
A look at the Bollinger Bands, the volatility indicator, shows that we are presently in a similar range that has previous marked cycle bottoms.
This from a recent article surely has to be problematic:
"Since 2010, there have been 4 bull cycles followed by 4 bear cycles. The average bull market lasts 449 days, and bear markets have lasted an average of 306 days, a ratio of 1.47. The last bull market lasted 818 days, so by this methodology our bear market length should be about 557 days, or an additional 241 days to the current 316 day bear market."
cryptoglobe.com/latest/2018/11/top-analysts-look-at-past-bitcoin-price-cycles-to-predict-the-return-of-volatility/
Finally, the main clue going forward has to be the growth curve, which currently has price relatively close to it - this cycle and correction was not nearly as large as the previous one, which overshot and undershot the curve to a higher degree. Given that price is currently nearer the mean, this would suggest that the next cycle will not be as large again. And all of this is based on the idea of reducing volatility in the macro. Various momentum indicators attest to this such as the following MACD and BB-
Ghi chú
The four cycles as quoted from the article above look very strange indeed.Ghi chú
The history of BTC is best conceive of in three cycles so far imo.
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