Parabolic Growth is Always a Concern. Especially in Bitcoin!

18 thg 7, 2019

This entire run up was unnatural. BTC ran up too high and too fast without significant corrections, which is a concern. Going exponentially this quickly and this early just endangered the low being in.

When markets go exponential, they become unsustainable. And when they correct, things end very badly.

Going from 7k to 14k so quickly actually endangered the 3.1k low. It's not just because of a certain price, it's because of how it got there.
You can have the exact same price, but if it gets there in a long slow disciplined way, it's okay.

There are two things: price and time. The same price over a shorter or longer period of time gives you a completely different technical picture.


Going above 11k changed the nature of this BTC rally. Now we are dealing with something extraordinary, just like back in December of 2017. And you all know which way and how far we went after that.

But the entire 2017 bull run was way more structured, because we had numerous 30%+ corrections as it was rising on the contrary to the current rally.


Whenever Bitcoin grows exponentially, historically it tends to fall by 80%. Does it have to happen this time? No, it doesn't. But it has enough probability of happening for us to mention this. If you don't have a plan for that situation, you really need to reconsider what your are doing as a trader in this space.

Since the parabolic advance is broken, an 80% correction is the ultimate target based on this pattern, which would take us back to ~2900. That's a very scary number, isn't it? Seems unreal?

If you can't imagine something happening, then it has a high probability of happening.


So, everything is set up for a huge correction, but we are not saying it will definitely happen! We are viewing an 80% fall as a very low percentage chance. You just have to be prepared for any outcome: new highs or going sub 6k and way lower.
As of right now, we are anticipating a correction to 8.5-7.5k (that's a 40-45% decrase). Talking about lower prices is out of the question.



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The information given is never financial advice. Always do your own research.