November Bitcoin Prediction 2014
I think a test of the 2000 level in china is going to happen quite soon. It seems as if the only buying pressure coming off of the last selloff was from short covering, which is not bullish. Natural buying pressure seems low, but this may change at lower prices. Support at 2150 is strong, but may break soon; the next significant support level is around 2000 yuan.
Currently, there is no clear sign that the downtrend has finished. To me, it appears that the bitcoin market is responding to negative/bearish developments in gold and the U.S markets, while it has little response to any bullish/positive developments. The last correction that peaked at 2500 yuan did not break any significant resistance levels and to me did not suggest the end of the bear market. For me, a clean break of $450 would be a convincing bullish case. Therefore, I may as well assume the downtrend is not finished, and very well may go parabolic at the behest of more negative developments or naturally. In my worst case scenario, bitcoin continues the parabolic trend and makes a low around 1200 yuan or $205. In this case, there could be such panic that it could drive us even lower. This case is represented in yellow and purple.
Another case would be a retest of 2000, where bitcoin found significant support before continuing the ascent; this could serve as enough support to prevent us from making a new low and carving out the beginnings of an uptrend. This is represented by green and red.
I think the last scenario is not likely, but possible. There, bears are too weak to break 2150, and we go up from here. I don't think this will happen just because of the lack of interest in this price level for bulls. Bears have not made the next move yet, but they have plenty of time. It is always good to consider all possibilities and to expect that the market may not do what you predict.
Currently, there is no clear sign that the downtrend has finished. To me, it appears that the bitcoin market is responding to negative/bearish developments in gold and the U.S markets, while it has little response to any bullish/positive developments. The last correction that peaked at 2500 yuan did not break any significant resistance levels and to me did not suggest the end of the bear market. For me, a clean break of $450 would be a convincing bullish case. Therefore, I may as well assume the downtrend is not finished, and very well may go parabolic at the behest of more negative developments or naturally. In my worst case scenario, bitcoin continues the parabolic trend and makes a low around 1200 yuan or $205. In this case, there could be such panic that it could drive us even lower. This case is represented in yellow and purple.
Another case would be a retest of 2000, where bitcoin found significant support before continuing the ascent; this could serve as enough support to prevent us from making a new low and carving out the beginnings of an uptrend. This is represented by green and red.
I think the last scenario is not likely, but possible. There, bears are too weak to break 2150, and we go up from here. I don't think this will happen just because of the lack of interest in this price level for bulls. Bears have not made the next move yet, but they have plenty of time. It is always good to consider all possibilities and to expect that the market may not do what you predict.
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