The only Bitcoin indicator to call every macro top AND every macro bottom is the Volume Density Oscillator. But how does it work and why does it work so well?
We all know the statistic that 98% of all traders lose money. There are 3 primary reasons for this. First, the average trader does not use a strategy with a statistical edge. Second, the average trader does not practice sound money management. And third, the average trader cannot control their emotions.
Therefore, as individuals, the average retail trader is a consistent loser. And when a large group of individual consistent losers enter a market, they form a herd of losers that stampede through the market wrecking everything in sight as they engage in all of the classic behaviors that typical losing traders engage in. They over leverage, they buy tops and sell bottoms, they revenge trade, they double, triple, and quadruple down on their losing bets.
The market becomes a chaotic environment full of noise. Fear, anxiety, depression, and anger are the dominant emotions moving the market as losing traders whipsaw the price up and down.
Making a profit in this noisy chaotic trading environment is incredibly difficult if not impossible and we all know that the best way to make money is to bet against the herd because the herd is wrong. But in order to do that, we need to have a way of determining what the herd is doing. So, how are we going to do that? That's where the Volume Density Oscillator comes in.
The Volume Density Oscillator (VDO), tracks the herd of losing traders over a macro time frame. It signals when the herd enters the market (indicating the end of a bull market) and it signals when the herd has left the market (indicating the end of a bear market and the beginning of a new bull cycle). But how does it do this?
The VDO is a volume indicator but unlike other volume indicators that calculate volume as a function of time or price, the VDO calculates the average amount of volume traded per unit of range.
This is a unique way of interpreting volume because we have stripped away time and price. We are only interested in whether the amount of volume traded per unit of range is rising or falling. And what the VDO shows is that THE AMOUNT OF VOLUME TRADED PER UNIT OF RANGE TRENDS UPWARD WHEN A BEAR MARKET IS ENTERED AND THE HERD IS IN CONTROL.
This makes sense because when a large group of losing traders are in control of the market, they inevitably push the market lower and lower as they behave badly and accumulate losses. Although invisible when viewed with the typical price chart and volume indicator, the VDO shows us that volume is traded in tighter and tighter ranges until all of the losing traders comprising the herd have been completely REKT and can no longer participate. The last of the losing herd leaving the market is indicated by a break of the upward VDO trendline. This is our signal that the herd is gone and it is now safe to enter the market long as a new bull market can begin.
On the flip side, the VDO also signals the end of a bull cycle as the herd begins to enter the market. The VDO reaches an extreme lower bound value indicating an extremely low amount of volume traded per unit of range. This is your signal to exit your long position as the herd is about to enter. They have been sitting on the sidelines watching the price moon without them. FOMO inevitably gets the best of them and they enter the market long at the very worst time.
As you can clearly see, the VDO is an incredibly accurate and valuable indicator for the Bitcoin market. Avoid the herd and prosper. Thank you for viewing. For more information, please send me a message.
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What's up y'all? Check out the new video I posted to YouTube showing the Volume Density Oscillator (VDO) in action using the "Replay" feature on TV. It's pretty cool: youtu.be/62GywWRGiQU
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