Impact of the Halving on Bitcoin:
With approximately a month remaining until the fourth halving in April 2024, the available supply of bitcoins for trading has dwindled to historically low levels, significantly reshaping the dynamics of digital asset prices.
The volume of bitcoins held for long-term investment surpasses new supply by over 341%, indicating a trend of accumulation among investors rather than immediate liquidation.
The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has added to the demand from institutional investors, further constraining the available supply.
Concurrently, there's an observable trend of investors moving bitcoins into long-term storage, reducing the active supply available for trading on exchanges.
Analysis of Patterns and Cycles:
In the aftermath of past halving events, a consistent growth trend has been observed, typically spanning around 350–360 days until the anticipation of the subsequent halving. However, a notable deviation occurred from November 2021 to December 22, 2022, marked by a significant price decline of over 70%, with Bitcoin hitting a low of $15,479. Subsequently, a period of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) ensued, characterized by sustained price appreciation.