basic BTC logic, game-theory.

10 thg 4

50% (fib) is a motivational driver. 60% motivates. 100% motivates.. and out of drivers.

people make up stories and reasons why something runs, with the PT's and so on?

I find Fibonacci to be convenient? (ie fib shows you the strength of trend, that u cant fake. since it's math)

10 thg 4

Ghi chú

using fib for spx. You can do it two-ways? it's more of a psychological driver, than rule. People seek conviction and "crowd" safety. Third "wave" would be the 2024 rally, led by NVDA and AI? trend was broken due to Q1 tax-deadline approaching? maybe trend can continue, but who knows. NVDA looks expensive, btc has been struggling, ie it's psychology over anything.

10 thg 4

Ghi chú

here is fib's universal "1:1.6" law. It's math but interestingly fits with the markets, maybe due to psychology (ratios feel appealing to eye or something?). In short- the first 1 unit (or 100%) comes trough grind and 1.6 gets filled easily, but trend becomes weak. Look at BTC at 48k to 68k (1->1.6).

10 thg 4

Ghi chú

here is one for pandemic crude oil. From 44$ to 70$ (or 1->1.6). The 1->1.6 came easily, whilst first 44$ came trough grinding. Doesn't fit perfectly but it's more of an art than science. later price above 70$ was a grind (and I assume different drivers? ie in longterm graph, 73$ was the 50% middle point, ie new opportunity).

10 thg 4

Ghi chú

other way to look at it is first 2/3 is safer? and the rest is the 1/3 push. (or final wave). new pattern emerges

crude oil above 85$? SPX above 4600. BTC above 48k etc?

10 thg 4

Ghi chú

-> greatest traders or speculants are ones who find themselves in "easy" markets, ie path to least resistance works in your favor not against. It's easier said than done obv.

10 thg 4

Ghi chú

NVDA wouldnt fit this logic until you change to log. view. It's psychology.