Time for a more significant rebound is running out

25 thg 8, 2023

On Tuesday, Bitcoin made a new low at $25,350. The next day, it bounced to $26,800 and then faltered back down to the proximity of $26,000. During the past three days, there was a slight accumulation of Bitcoin among the biggest players (reflected in the growing number of BTC addresses with holdings exceeding 1,000 tokens). In the meantime, technicals on the daily time frame stayed bearish, and the weekly time frame started to become increasingly bearish as well. Furthermore, the stock market seemingly failed to reverse the bearish trend, likely foreshadowing more weakness in the crypto market. As a result, we continue to maintain a bearish view on Bitcoin.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. On Tuesday, we said that the rebound in the price of Bitcoin was possible due to the price deviating too far from its moving averages. The next day, Bitcoin attempted to retrace toward its 20-day SMA but failed at $26,800 and slumped back to the area near $26,000. The time is running out for a more significant bounce as moving averages are starting to approach the price (as opposed to the price spiking toward moving averages).

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

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DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.