BTCUSD: Slow But Still A Good Level To Buy.

BTCUSD update: Price has not made a new low while breaking above the 6864 previous candle high. This is a bullish sign which is especially emphasized since a long trade was called on S.C. yesterday. Now this market needs to follow through by breaking the bearish trend line and eventually taking out the 7492 level. The next relevant resistance is at the 8090 area.

The 6K psychological support is holding. The 6204 reversal boundary was never touched while price finds some support near the 6805 level which is a reversal zone boundary relative to the 7240 low. The process is slow, but the market is telling us something here. If it was majorly weak, it would not waste any time and blow through the 6K low, not hesitate. This price action can be interpreted as a decline in selling pressure, and with short interest so high, this is can lead to a serious squeeze as shorts are forced to cover and become motivated buyers.

What is lacking in this market is a significant bullish catalyst. With all of the macro economic drama, it is almost like the world is not paying attention to this market at such an attractive area. Usually in situations like this, some piece of news will hit the market unexpectedly and cause a reaction. There is no way you can measure this using technical analysis. Instead, TA helps you to position yourself to capitalize on where the market is going anyway, the news just pushes prices faster.

IF price closes above the bearish trend line in the low 7Ks, followed by a close above the 7490 level (.382 of recent bearish swing), then it will have a much better chance of reaching the 8091 to 8543 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish swing). For those who are entering swing trades at the current level, the 8091 area serves as a good initial target to lock in some profit. If you are in a longer term trade, it makes more sense to wait for broader resistance levels in the mid 9Ks and above before locking in some profit (this all depends on what your average entry price is).

In summary, when the mainstream loses interest in a market, which often happens after a long and drawn out unfavorable environment, it is usually a good time to invest. For anyone who remembers, back in 2013, this market reached 1K for the first time and it was quite an event. Once it reached its peak, it then spent the next 2 YEARS gyrating in an uneventful, boring market that went as low as the 200s. I remember articles being written about how this market was a failure, etc. It then went to 20K as we all know. So much for being a failure. Even though we are in a much different environment with many new factors driving this market, human nature is still the same. This market in particular is a deflationary asset, which means it has a built in bias to go higher over time. Unless something seriously changes fundamentally, I am a long term buyer, especially when the market is beat up by short sighted and reactive participants.

Questions and comments welcome.