XBTFX

Bitcoin: only a short reversal

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Old stories regarding potential further rate increases are hitting the market again. Although the previous period was marked with some positive sentiment over the potential for the first BTC ETF to be introduced to the market, and potential further acceptance of the crypto coins by large financial institutions, still, the market is currently holding trading in order to see next monetary steps to be taken by the FOMC in July`s meeting. This comes after the release of quite mixed jobs data in the US. On one side the jobs market seems to weaken, seasonally or not is to be seen, while, on the other side, wages are going up. Increased wages imply higher demand for goods, which further results in higher inflation. Such development increased market expectations to 92% that the Fed will increase its interest rates in July. Whether this will occur or not, we will see on the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for July 25th – 26th.

BTC started the previous week around $31.3K level. During the week BTC struggled to sustain this level. Highest weekly level reached was $31.5K, after which, the coin reverted to the down side and support level of $30K. Lowest weekly level reached was $29.7K. After reaching clear overbought side, RSI slowly is heading toward the downside. During the week, the indicator reached level of 55, however, still does not provide clear indication that the market is ready to start its move toward the oversold side. Moving average of 50 days continues its divergence from MA200, which is a positive sign that the market is not ready for a reversal in trend.

Charts are pointing for a potential of a short reversal for the last two weeks. During the previous week the market was clearly testing a $30K support line. It is ending the week at this level, and will start the week ahead also at this level. At the same time, daily trading volumes were halved, which will make it difficult for BTC to clearly break current support. However, based on charts, there is a potential for a short term stop around $28K, before the coin reverts back again to the upside and again level of $30K.

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