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Bitcoin EW guess (not analysis)

1 660
Broke .618 of the last bearish structure, must be bull market now.

If this were a double combo correction (WXY), then we've had:

  • 0W to 6k
  • WX to 11.7k


Inside 0W, we had an ABC correction, where the A was another ABC and the C was an impulsive 12345.

Inside WX, we had a truncated 5th wave in an impulsive 12345. --> we're currently notably less bullish than then.

Now, are we in a bull or bear market? A bull market inside a bear market?

In other words, is the drop from 11.7k to 6.5k the A of ABC inside XY, or is it the ABC in its totality? Both are possible.

We know that we've had an impulsive 12345 at its end at the moment. A drop from here will be just as the drop from 2014 (from 200D SMA).

We could easily break some supports & do an impulsive 12345 down to 2.5k.

I still think this is likely because we've had an ABC down from 11.7 to 6.5 but no impulsive wave.

Also, I can't believe 100% gains in two weeks among some notable useless tokens if it were the bottom.

In the end, however, the whales have the final words.
Ghi chú
will whales attack (not counting the pump an hour ago)?

ảnh chụp nhanh

(temp oversold)
Ghi chú
the 50D MA level is very interesting:

ảnh chụp nhanh
Ghi chú
ảnh chụp nhanh
Ghi chú
ảnh chụp nhanh
Ghi chú
two bitcoin scenarios:

ảnh chụp nhanh
Ghi chú
closeup of the bullish scenario

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Ghi chú
closeup of the bearish

ảnh chụp nhanh

slightly different from the earlier post because we have not a short-term reversal that helps us measure better (originally was measured with prior price movements)
Ghi chú
the second one should say scenario 2
Ghi chú
oho, looks like the bullish scenario?!

unless it's more bearish than I thought?

H&S is avoided. don't know about the power of the double top (obviously not as powerful as a valid H&S)
Ghi chú
ABC or 12345?

ảnh chụp nhanh
Ghi chú
looks like it's extremely bearish

2.5k seems likely now

ảnh chụp nhanh

already reached below the channel (bounced back)
Ghi chú
price broke down 8.4k support

ảnh chụp nhanh

could touch the next level (7.8k)
Ghi chú
actually, right at 50D MA now

ảnh chụp nhanh

need to wait for another breakdown to short, target 7.8k, then 50W MA
Ghi chú
possible rising wedge

ảnh chụp nhanh
Ghi chú
suddenly the "top" posts here are bearish

need to brace to possible bull trap

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