Bitcoin Cycle #5 Projection

5 thg 12, 2023

Bitcoin Projection - Cycle #5 (2025)

The following Bitcoin project for the 5th (2025) Bitcoin cycle is based on the following observations and measurements.

1. Presumption that the 4-year-cycle hypothesis holds for the remainder of the 5th Bticoin cycle, which should then peek in mid to late 2025.
   
2. Start of cycle peek range, is based on the earliest observed historical peek.
   
3. End of cycle peek range, is based on the latest observed historical peek.
   
4. The grey projection curve is fitted to points computed as the average of the following logistic regressions.
   

• All historical cycle all-time highs.
  
• All historical gains above all-time lows.
  

Logistic Regression function for historical all-time highs.

This gives a speculative estimate for the maximum possible peak for this (5th) Bitcoin cycle.
Best fit "appears" to be quadratic.

p_max = 3647 + 34.2 * t + 0.0256 * t^2

Logistic Regression function for historical gain above previous all-time lows.

This gives a speculative estimate for the minimum possible peak for this (5th) Bitcoin cycle.
Best fit "appears" to be exponantial.

x = 40476 * e^(-0.00318 * t)
p_min = 15473*x