Deep Analysis for Bitcoin – The 4-Year Cycle Repeating Again

🔹 1. Historic Bear Market Drops Are Identical

Each cycle produced almost the same percentage crash from top to bottom:
• Cycle 1: –86.85%
• Cycle 2: –83.97%
• Cycle 3: –77.20%
• Current Cycle (Projection): –70% to –75%

Every cycle becomes slightly less volatile, but the pattern is still the same:
The top is always followed by a huge correction.

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🔹 2. The Cycle Durations Are Nearly Perfect Copies

Top → Bottom timing
• Cycle 1: 59 weeks
• Cycle 2: 52 weeks
• Cycle 3: 53 weeks
• Current projection: ~52 weeks

⏳ Every major Bitcoin top takes ~1 year to reach the bottom.

Bottom → Next Top timing
• Cycle 1: ~1070 days
• Cycle 2: ~1057 days
• Cycle 3: ~1057 days
• Current cycle follows the same length exactly.

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🔹 3. Bitcoin Always Bottoms Near the 200-Week SMA

Every cycle bottom touches or slightly dips below the 200-week moving average (black line).
Your projection shows the same thing happening again:

📉 Projected BTC bottom: ~$38,000 – $40,000
Exactly where the 200-week SMA and long-term trendline converge.

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🔹 4. Current Cycle Is Following the Previous One Perfectly

Your chart overlays show:
• The 2025 top mirrors the 2021 top
• The decline angle is almost identical
• RSI is falling the same way it did in every bear market start
• The projected drop of –70% from the 2025 top leads directly to the $38K bottom zone

This is the same structure as:
• 2013 → 2015
• 2017 → 2018
• 2021 → 2022

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🔹 5. What’s Next?

If Bitcoin continues to follow its 4-year cycle:

📉 Bear Market Bottom: ~$38K in 2026
📈 Next Major Bull Run: 2026–2028
🏁 Major Cycle Top: around 2028–2029

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🧠 “Bitcoin has never broken its 4-year cycle. Each top is followed by a –70% bear market, and each bottom leads into the next halving bull run.”

📜 Disclaimer: This is general information only and not financial advice.