MMCrypto said that everytime Bitcoin made a new weekly ATH, it went on a major bull run. He also said every time Bitcoin bounced off the 20 (or 21?) WMA (or was it EMA?) that it went on a major bull run without crashing back below it. Both of these statements are incorrect. In Q4 2019, Bitcoin bounced off that MA and then crashed into the March 2020 abyss. I don’t think March 2020 was a one-time event (because I know that Covid-stan is not what they tell us it is). March 2020 was unleashing of a global economic collapse and societal(sui)cide that is accelerating.
The weekly close in July 2019 (and arguably also August 2020) were new weekly ATH(s) yet resulted in price collapses of -70% (and -21% respectively).
Additionally weekly closes can be arbitrary as for example this most recent prior weekly close was a new weekly ATH but the timezone chosen is arbitrary and had it been in a timezone 3 hours prior then it would not have been a new weekly ATH.
Thus I also look to the VWAP price level as a more objective measure. The VWAP has not made a new weekly ATH.
Also there is as of writing this not yet a new daily ATH either, and a perfect bearish M pattern, double-top is pending if the price declines.
P.S. c.f. also my latest updates to my prior idea, by clicking the following chart.
The weekly close in July 2019 (and arguably also August 2020) were new weekly ATH(s) yet resulted in price collapses of -70% (and -21% respectively).
Additionally weekly closes can be arbitrary as for example this most recent prior weekly close was a new weekly ATH but the timezone chosen is arbitrary and had it been in a timezone 3 hours prior then it would not have been a new weekly ATH.
Thus I also look to the VWAP price level as a more objective measure. The VWAP has not made a new weekly ATH.
Also there is as of writing this not yet a new daily ATH either, and a perfect bearish M pattern, double-top is pending if the price declines.
P.S. c.f. also my latest updates to my prior idea, by clicking the following chart.
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Rising wedge or channel either topped or the highest $72k by Friday daily close or $75k by Sunday week close if channel or $68k by Friday close if wedge.
Rising wedge or channel either topped or the highest $72k by Friday daily close or $75k by Sunday week close if channel or $68k by Friday close if wedge.
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ATH weekly close? I don’t think so! UTC timezone is an arbitrary choice. Will this week close below $59.8k?
Switched on computer yesterday. Dow Jones 37k+ should come by end of year. Crypto I'm still waiting to buy back in. Thinking if crypto is going up with US indices during this time and I am wrong about crypto drop. More thinking in-between recovery.
I replied…
Bitcoin Weekly VWAP still did not yet make a new ATH.
Nasdaq looks weak and Bitcoin more correlated to Nasdaq than DJIA. Armstrong says DJIA outperforming is a sign that international capital is fleeing into U.S. dollar markets, thus maybe a risk-off warning sign although we know any crash will be an excuse to pass a massive spending bill and for the Fed to pour more QE kerosene on the dumpster fire. Armstrong has a weekly Directional Change next week for stock markets, with monthly directional changes in November and December. Looks another swing lower starting next week into November as I have been expecting. Armstrong has a Panic Cycle in December so normally that means an abrupt, volatile move in one direction or the other — or in both directions in the same month. So looks like some sort of flash crash incoming in November/December with a quick reversal heading back up, which is exactly what I have been expecting since I identified this broadening wedge pattern back in May/June which enabled me to predict the bounce from ~$30k although I thought it might bounce from $26k and I originally didn’t expect higher than $61k for the bounce and was thinking maybe $47 – 58k.
There is bad news incoming from China. Tether may eventually be affected but probably not in November/December although not impossible. Also problems with U.S. government shutdown coming back by early December. Also in November Federal Reserve will announce they will stop printing money. The U.S. Congress needs a market crash to help them enact the massive spending bill boondoggle — maybe Santa Klause Schwab, Gates, Soros and Rothschild will help them. Tax selling in the U.S. may be intense this Q4 because of likelihood of much higher taxes in 2023 if the spending bill boondoggle is enacted. Many possible shocks to the markets coming.
Gold/silver also approaching their bottoms this Nov/Dec (if not already bottomed at least for gold, silver may bottom under $20) also repeating the pattern from July to November 2019 as is ostensibly Bitcoin. Should rally into March again before the next crash. New ATHs by Feb/Mar perhaps ~$2250 and ~$35 – 40. After any crash Spring/Summer 2022 which would also affect Bitcoin, potential highs for gold/silver in 2024 are ~$5 – 6k and ~$100 – 200.