Thanks for viewing. I put CL1! Crude in a wave (4) correction.
I was quite happy with my prediction of the last drop from 75 to 64.50 (although I picked the start of the price decline accurately, I was expecting a drop a bit lower on that occasion) but then stopped following crude closely. It would be a little surprising if we were done after that first drop to $65 as wave 4 of any degree tends toward a complex, shallow, and lengthy correction.
What we saw since the drop to $64.50:
- A nice price recovery to $76.90 exceeding the previous swing high,
- What was shaping up to be an impulse wave was forming - I had a tentative target for wave 5 of $78+,
- What appeared as an impulse wave retraced deeply and on the 11th of October it revealed itself to be a failed impulse wave due to heavy selling pressure,
- In the price decline from $76.90 5 waves down have shown themselves (no internal failures).
- The recent down-move may be at or approaching its end - as wave 5 has 5 sub-waves visible, that have met normal extensions,
So what happens now?
Likely another 5,3,5 abc to retrace somewhere around half of the previous move before extending down to around my speculative lower trend-line.
After that? No sure yet, but multiple zig-zags and triangles are common in wave 4 and can be a real challenge to trade successfully.
What could happen?
A multiple zig-zag could move as low as $55 (the wave 1 top) before the larger-degree upward impulse move, with a tentative target above $85, becomes invalid. Protect your funds everyone.
I was quite happy with my prediction of the last drop from 75 to 64.50 (although I picked the start of the price decline accurately, I was expecting a drop a bit lower on that occasion) but then stopped following crude closely. It would be a little surprising if we were done after that first drop to $65 as wave 4 of any degree tends toward a complex, shallow, and lengthy correction.
What we saw since the drop to $64.50:
- A nice price recovery to $76.90 exceeding the previous swing high,
- What was shaping up to be an impulse wave was forming - I had a tentative target for wave 5 of $78+,
- What appeared as an impulse wave retraced deeply and on the 11th of October it revealed itself to be a failed impulse wave due to heavy selling pressure,
- In the price decline from $76.90 5 waves down have shown themselves (no internal failures).
- The recent down-move may be at or approaching its end - as wave 5 has 5 sub-waves visible, that have met normal extensions,
So what happens now?
Likely another 5,3,5 abc to retrace somewhere around half of the previous move before extending down to around my speculative lower trend-line.
After that? No sure yet, but multiple zig-zags and triangles are common in wave 4 and can be a real challenge to trade successfully.
What could happen?
A multiple zig-zag could move as low as $55 (the wave 1 top) before the larger-degree upward impulse move, with a tentative target above $85, becomes invalid. Protect your funds everyone.