It looks like on Tuesday, August 1st folks were reestablishing their short positions, which were closed at the end of the month, the day before. Hopefully it was a "technical" move and we will continue a bit higher to 200 Daily MA @ 51.5x December 2017 contract.
Overall USOIL appears to be 2-3 days close to start off a final 5th wave of the Expanding Diagonal (5) th of a major C from 2011.
51.2 - 51.5 comes out to be an area of strong confluence, where 200 DMA and sit alongside some harmonics.
In case the price will travel above 51.2 - 51.5, 52.6x will become another potential reversal zone. Where of wave 1 to 3, of wave 3 and end of wave B of 3 converge.
Stops should be placed above this area, @ 52.6x. Still the set-up will be violated only above $55 handle.
It is pretty common for wave 5 to be truncated following extended 3rd. So my primary target will be $38 per bbl December contract - January 2016 low. More clear targets would be set while the pattern unfolds.
p.s. CAD heavily overbought and diverging.
Trade safe, control your risk.