Coffee prices have surged to all-time highs near $440, following the post-COVID commodity boom. While most of us love coffee, this rally might soon give us cheaper beans—and a profitable short opportunity.
Why Bearish?
RSI Divergence: Weekly RSI shows strong bearish divergence, signaling momentum exhaustion.
Volume Disparity: Price climbed while volume weakened—a classic reversal setup.
Macro Factors: Brazil’s crop outlook is improving, El Niño impact fading, and global demand softening amid economic uncertainty.
Seasonality: Historically, post-harvest periods see price corrections.
COT Data: Large speculators are trimming long positions, adding to bearish sentiment.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $440(recent high).
Support: $290 (first major zone), $160 (long-term trendline).
Trade Setup:
Target: $160 for a potential 57% downside.
Stop-Loss: Above ~$475.
Watch USD strength and commodity indices for confirmation. If the dollar continues to firm, coffee prices could accelerate lower.
Risk/Reward: Attractive for swing traders with patience.
What do you think—are we about to see a major correction in coffee?
Why Bearish?
RSI Divergence: Weekly RSI shows strong bearish divergence, signaling momentum exhaustion.
Volume Disparity: Price climbed while volume weakened—a classic reversal setup.
Macro Factors: Brazil’s crop outlook is improving, El Niño impact fading, and global demand softening amid economic uncertainty.
Seasonality: Historically, post-harvest periods see price corrections.
COT Data: Large speculators are trimming long positions, adding to bearish sentiment.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $440(recent high).
Support: $290 (first major zone), $160 (long-term trendline).
Trade Setup:
Target: $160 for a potential 57% downside.
Stop-Loss: Above ~$475.
Watch USD strength and commodity indices for confirmation. If the dollar continues to firm, coffee prices could accelerate lower.
Risk/Reward: Attractive for swing traders with patience.
What do you think—are we about to see a major correction in coffee?
Giao dịch đang hoạt động
Monthly RSI divergence even crazier! Caution is also required as a bullish H&S pattern has emerged alongside a daily cross with the prices holding!
BEAR in mind that the daily MACD has turned negative now too!
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Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.