DOW JONES Similarities with Dotcom crash. 1M MA50 is the key.

19 thg 12, 2022

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is trading on a red December candle, following the extreme rise since October that broke back above both the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA50 (red trend-line). The 1M MA50 seems to be the key for the uptrend as (excluding the COVID crash), is the line that keeps the multi-year uptrend intact since 2011.

However, the 1M RSI sequence displays a lot of similarities with the 2000 - 2002 Dotcom crash. As you see it also made a marginal break above the 1W MA50 after rebounding on the 1M MA50 but then corrected way more after it lost it (1M MA50) again. The red flag shows where potentially we could be at today. Notice that a similar -38.60% drop would hit or almost hit the Higher Highs trend-line since the 2000 Dotcom Bubble peak.

As a result we consider the 1M MA50 as the key. A new break below it, practically confirms the extension of the 2022 correction for another year. Until that happens though, it is more likely to see the 13 year Bull Cycle continue, targeting 55k in the next 4 years.


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