Update to Dow Jones Industrials Time At Mode

19 thg 10

Back in 2015 I had published a chart with annual data for the Dow Jones Industrials. I will provide a link at the bottom.

The research for this patterning is something I did myself by hand using pencil and paper back in the 1980's. These patterns show up in all time frames.

There is plenty of room to enhance the research on this technique and a group of us gather in the chat rooms here at TradingView to discuss new trades that set up and point out when trades expire.

Notice how these two grey boxes (which are both 50% drops in price) that expand wider in time from the 1960's to the 1980's and the 2000-2010's had a multi-year trend, followed by a monster crash (1987 was 40% and 2000 was 37%) and then just two+ years later there was a secondary bear market of 20% in 1990 and 22% in 2022. Keep in mind this is just for the DJI and not the Nasdaq Composite or S&P500 which were greater corrections.

The 11-year time frame of the 1999-2011 pattern allows for an 11-year rally from 2012 (which was year 1 of the 11-year rally) shows that time expired. As you can see from the 1943-1962 trend, a smaller 5-year mode formed at the end of the 20 year trend and then the market peaked in 1972-1973 when time expired for the second, smaller mode.

I had to reconstruct this chart after the data for the previous chart changed symbol. See the link below to see the original.

I look forward to your additional research onto this pattern and its implications to the idea that we are in a similar period to 1993-1994 with rally years of 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000 ahead of us.

All the best,

Tim

October 19, 2024 3:31PM EST