DJI (1897 to 2022) log channel reality check

12 thg 10, 2022

Charting all possible events is useful, however unlikely they may be.

Logarithmic channel drawn from 1897.
Overshoot in 1929 and symmetrical undershoot 1932.
Throw-over and rejection 1987.
DJI entered hyperlogarithmic growth post-1995.
Bounce off channel top trendline 2009.
Maximum downside from 2022 high (symmetrical undershoot): -90% loss
- In "no bail-outs" scenario á la Great Depression.

Validity of analysis: These are straight lines roughly drawn for 120 years of data from an arbitrary cutoff point, what do you think?
Probability of risk: Unknown to uncategorizable.

12 thg 10, 2022

Ghi chú

Is productivity growth logarithmic or hyperlogarithmic?
Are hyperlogarithmic trends sustainable?

"The population of Great Britain from the first century A.D. to the twentieth century had approximately a constant increase in the ratio of change as has the U.S. National Debt from 1790 to the present, excluding the years of Federal land sales
preceding the Civil War."

Excerpt from

Hyper-Logarithmic Trends
Author(s): R. W. Fenske
Source:
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 15, No. 2
(1966), pp. 110-115
Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical Society