US Dollar mixed ahead of weekly jobless numbers
Traders brace for a second day this week with the weekly jobless numbers.
Traders are clueless toward Friday’s NFP as ADP and ISM were mixed.
US Dollar Index sinks below 107, though rally is still intact.
US Dollar starts to lose steam
- Challenger Job Cuts for September will be release. No forecast is available.
- Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance will be release. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to increase from 204,000 to 210,000, while Continuing Claims are expected to remain at 1.67 million. Trade Balance is expected to contract from -$65 billion to -$62.3 billion.
- Fed speakers Loretta Mester, Thomas Barking, and Mary Daly will be speaking at 13:00 GMT, 15:30 GMT, and 16:00 GMT respectively. Markets are expecting them to shed some light on the Fed's policy outlook.
- Equities are rebounding from the recent sell-off, with Nikkei and Topix indices in Japan advancing nearly 2% on Thursday. European stocks are flat, and US futures are mildly in the red.
- Markets are pricing in a 77% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting in November.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is peaking at 4.74%, off the highs from 4.85% earlier in the week.
Failing its first test
- The US Dollar Index is under pressure as traders are no longer awarding the Greenback for growing economic indicators when they are contracting against the previous print.
- Traders are starting to embrace the idea that the extensive growth cycle for the US might be nearing its end and is over its peak.
- That could translate into a substantially weaker US Dollar Index (DX), which might start to break down as more data points are issued in the coming days and weeks.
- The US Dollar Index opened around 106.77, though the overheated Relative Strength Index (RSI) is acting as a cap that it is trading in an overbought regime.
- With 107.19 – the high of November 30, 2022 – tested on Wednesday, it will be important to see if DXY can get a daily close above that level. If that is the case, 109.30 is the next level to watch.
- On the downside, the recent resistance at 105.88 should be seen as first support. Still, that barrier has just been broken to the upside, so it isn’t likely to be strong. Instead, look for 105.12 to do the trick and keep the DXY above 105.00.
Overall, US Dollar Index is currently overbought and could be poised for a sell-off. If the index breaks below 105.12, it could fall to 105.00 or even lower.
Traders brace for a second day this week with the weekly jobless numbers.
Traders are clueless toward Friday’s NFP as ADP and ISM were mixed.
US Dollar Index sinks below 107, though rally is still intact.
US Dollar starts to lose steam
- Challenger Job Cuts for September will be release. No forecast is available.
- Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance will be release. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to increase from 204,000 to 210,000, while Continuing Claims are expected to remain at 1.67 million. Trade Balance is expected to contract from -$65 billion to -$62.3 billion.
- Fed speakers Loretta Mester, Thomas Barking, and Mary Daly will be speaking at 13:00 GMT, 15:30 GMT, and 16:00 GMT respectively. Markets are expecting them to shed some light on the Fed's policy outlook.
- Equities are rebounding from the recent sell-off, with Nikkei and Topix indices in Japan advancing nearly 2% on Thursday. European stocks are flat, and US futures are mildly in the red.
- Markets are pricing in a 77% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting in November.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is peaking at 4.74%, off the highs from 4.85% earlier in the week.
Failing its first test
- The US Dollar Index is under pressure as traders are no longer awarding the Greenback for growing economic indicators when they are contracting against the previous print.
- Traders are starting to embrace the idea that the extensive growth cycle for the US might be nearing its end and is over its peak.
- That could translate into a substantially weaker US Dollar Index (DX), which might start to break down as more data points are issued in the coming days and weeks.
- The US Dollar Index opened around 106.77, though the overheated Relative Strength Index (RSI) is acting as a cap that it is trading in an overbought regime.
- With 107.19 – the high of November 30, 2022 – tested on Wednesday, it will be important to see if DXY can get a daily close above that level. If that is the case, 109.30 is the next level to watch.
- On the downside, the recent resistance at 105.88 should be seen as first support. Still, that barrier has just been broken to the upside, so it isn’t likely to be strong. Instead, look for 105.12 to do the trick and keep the DXY above 105.00.
Overall, US Dollar Index is currently overbought and could be poised for a sell-off. If the index breaks below 105.12, it could fall to 105.00 or even lower.
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