US Dollar "Cup & Crisis" Formation
The US Dollar Index (
DXY) represents a weighted basket of currencies
CURRENCY WEIGHT
Euro (EUR) 57.6%
Japanese Yen (JPY) 13.6%
British Pound (GBP) 11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) 9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK) 4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF) 3.6%
I believe these currencies will depreciate on a net basis relative to the the USD for these reasons:
1) The Federal Reserve has catalyzed a high interest rate environment for USD debt both Treasury and Private Corporate. This offers a better risk adjusted credit yield for international investors relative to the rates they can find in the DXY component markets. Investors have to buy the dollar, in order to buy USD credit.
2) The economies of the DXY component currencies will slow more than the the US economy which is just beginning a multi-year effort to reshore manufacturing for multiple industries which will increase dollar demand. Some demand for manufacturing economy currencies like Korea, Vietnam, and China will move to the USD to buy those goods which are now domestic.
3) The Dollar is the crisis safe haven currency. Whether the crisis is debt, or inflation, the USD is still the best risk adjusted currency as all economies are currently experiencing the same problems
DXY) represents a weighted basket of currencies CURRENCY WEIGHT
Euro (EUR) 57.6%
Japanese Yen (JPY) 13.6%
British Pound (GBP) 11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) 9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK) 4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF) 3.6%
I believe these currencies will depreciate on a net basis relative to the the USD for these reasons:
1) The Federal Reserve has catalyzed a high interest rate environment for USD debt both Treasury and Private Corporate. This offers a better risk adjusted credit yield for international investors relative to the rates they can find in the DXY component markets. Investors have to buy the dollar, in order to buy USD credit.
2) The economies of the DXY component currencies will slow more than the the US economy which is just beginning a multi-year effort to reshore manufacturing for multiple industries which will increase dollar demand. Some demand for manufacturing economy currencies like Korea, Vietnam, and China will move to the USD to buy those goods which are now domestic.
3) The Dollar is the crisis safe haven currency. Whether the crisis is debt, or inflation, the USD is still the best risk adjusted currency as all economies are currently experiencing the same problems
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