US Dollar Index - Year of the triangle
Topping candle on Friday
I'm still not giving up the idea that we are going to break to yearly lows in the US Dollar soon. Now it's obvious that the whole 2016 year was a big triangle for the US Dollar. Friday we broke out of the triangle, but by the close price is back in the triangle again. It's pretty hard to predict what will happen in the intervention competition so we cannot rule out that price is going to break above the July high in the next 2-3 days. But this is not the breakout you want to buy. As we printed a topping candle on Friday and we are back in the triangle there is a small chance for a breakout above the July high. Next week or the week after next we are going to test the lower line of the triangle and will break it down. At the middle of November a possible testback of the triangle and 200 SMA is coming and by Christmas we are going to break the July low and bottoming at 91.
Notice how overbought the RSI. Timewise we are too late to hold RSI in the overbought territory and print a strong rally like last November. So RSI will turn down and will be heading to oversold.
I'm still not giving up the idea that we are going to break to yearly lows in the US Dollar soon. Now it's obvious that the whole 2016 year was a big triangle for the US Dollar. Friday we broke out of the triangle, but by the close price is back in the triangle again. It's pretty hard to predict what will happen in the intervention competition so we cannot rule out that price is going to break above the July high in the next 2-3 days. But this is not the breakout you want to buy. As we printed a topping candle on Friday and we are back in the triangle there is a small chance for a breakout above the July high. Next week or the week after next we are going to test the lower line of the triangle and will break it down. At the middle of November a possible testback of the triangle and 200 SMA is coming and by Christmas we are going to break the July low and bottoming at 91.
Notice how overbought the RSI. Timewise we are too late to hold RSI in the overbought territory and print a strong rally like last November. So RSI will turn down and will be heading to oversold.
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Zoom in the RSI indicator I post a few important notes there
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Don't forget the bigger picture.
It's still a 2-year-range with a MACD divergence.
It's still a 2-year-range with a MACD divergence.