DXY US Dollar Index Macro View 05/01 - Upcoming Week Outlook

5 thg 1, 2019

Thursday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and prices both decrease beyond expectations. Non-Farm Employment Change jumped by 312,000, Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.4% and Unemployment Rate slightly increased to 3.9% in December. Previous months' Non- Farm numbers were revised higher by 58,000. Overall, the labour market remains strong.

Next week outlook:
Trade talk announcement starting from Monday.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers.
FOMC Meeting Minutes but most likely remain unchanged.
Chairman Jerome H. Powell joint discussion with former Chair Janet Yellen and former Chairman Ben Bernanke at the American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Association 2019.

For the past 2 months, DXY have been ranging sideways with no clear direction. There is a short strong bull but still unable to break it’s previous high at 97 levels, leading to a down 3 point down trend line formed. Overall suggesting to watch out 2 levels. If prices break through trend line on move towards 97.70 levels, the bull structure prevails from daily chart. Support levels at 95.00 will have to watch out a bounce break scenario.

Indicators:
Parabolic SAR – Bearish
MACD – Bearish
Stochastic – Moving out of oversold, Bullish
Overall - 2/3 - Bearish

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