Technical Forecast For US Dollars: BEARISH
Looking to the trade-weighted Dollar index, the congestion is readily apparent. The swing high from early November – the highest level for this measure since June 2017 – is not far from where we end this past week. Theoretically, it would not take a significant charge to return the market to that level and possibly force a break. While 98 is a significant technical ceiling, it would likely be difficult to simply muster the level of appetite necessary to simply break short-term resistance and reach that figure – much less surpass it. The ‘path of least resistance’ in this case would be a break to the down side which could open up support established through the second half of the year down around 94. Such a move would still be difficult to build up to, but it still wouldn’t come with an inherent assumption of a full-blown trend.
Looking to the trade-weighted Dollar index, the congestion is readily apparent. The swing high from early November – the highest level for this measure since June 2017 – is not far from where we end this past week. Theoretically, it would not take a significant charge to return the market to that level and possibly force a break. While 98 is a significant technical ceiling, it would likely be difficult to simply muster the level of appetite necessary to simply break short-term resistance and reach that figure – much less surpass it. The ‘path of least resistance’ in this case would be a break to the down side which could open up support established through the second half of the year down around 94. Such a move would still be difficult to build up to, but it still wouldn’t come with an inherent assumption of a full-blown trend.