ES In mark down phase. False Rally Feb 24' Bottom 3950

Market structure dictates that we are in a stage 3 downtrend, or the mark down phase. I sold all of my shares of SPY and am sitting on cash waiting for this false fake rally to sizzle out and continue the downtrend back down to the middle of the first accumulation zone of 3950.

I will continue to buy in the new accumulated zone around February and March 2024 around 3950-4000 area. Prime buying zones. Bullish channel. I am still bullish until 5250. From 5250, I will expect that to be the top before a massive 36% sell off back down to 3150.

This fake rally will sucker in a ton of buyers thinking this is the next leg up only to be disappointed when after the holidays it starts to dump. I will look for sells when day trading until then.

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I am expecting after the next accumulation area in February and March that there will be a massive rip higher for the Mark Up phase.

After the mark up phase, I see the distribution phase happening around 5000-5250 zone December 2024- February 2025

The mark down phase, or that 36% sell off will then ensue.

June 2026 will be the best opportunity to buy.

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Using ATR indicator to measure volatility, you can see a falling wedge signaling declining volatility. Once this wedge is broken and it starts to pick back up, I believe the next leg down to 3950 will start.

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Same exact pattern as before just on a smaller scale