ES/SPY Weekend Look (Sept7-10) with levels

Here is how is see the ES on the weekend going into the week of Sept 7-10. Last week felt very bullish into the Friday close after the disappointing jobs number. Bad new = good news in that the Fed is likely to maintain the status quo. No tapering in the near future and and a chance for an interest rate hike is more or less zero. With no other alternative (TINA) money continues to flow into the equity markets. That FOMO feeling is starting to creep in again and it feels like growth names have a chance for a resurgence after getting beaten down for the past few months. Once again trades are getting crowded though with newer names such as DOCS, DOCN, UPST ect all exploding higher. That said the ES is showing no signs real of weakness. Last week price traded in a tighter range (small box) but did so at the ATH. Price remains comfortably above the ema cloud and the neutral zone. As the chart shows the 55 sma has been a good floor for price and the moving averages are nicely stacked. The plan is to continue riding the trend until it changes. Lets see what the week holds.

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Once again watching this box again. A break above gives me confidence to add longs. A break below tells me to have patience with adding new longs.

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Toying with the bottom of the box. May bounce here so don't short unless you see a confirmation of a break down.

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This what I mean by confirmation. Lets see how the second test of the low plays out.

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Broke down out of the box in the overnight session but recovered quickly fror the 4500 level. 4500 is now the key level to the downside. If we get weakness the neutral zone (large tan box) will be the main level of support . Price will likely retest the 4500 low. If it holds, however, we could see a bullish move back to the highs.

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Expect some choppy action. Jolts job report out at 7am est and Beige Book out at 2pm est. Traders will be waiting for those results before picking a direction.

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There's the retest. If it doesn't hold look for the top of the neutral to be support. If that breaks the next level is the bottom of the neutral.

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Top of the neutral is support for now. Market makers want price below 4500 as there is a ton of call premium at and above 4500. This is how large whole numbers affect price action. Fridays = premium kill day.

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Closed inside the neutral after the quick bounce off the 382. 4426 in play for Monday.