Giá lên

S&P500 - Long; For now ...

Cập nhật

This naturally rimes with the Nasdaq signals and with the overall global equities outlook.

Here, two opposing forces are the most significant factor;
1) The unfolding (and enduring!) USD strength - Downward pressure;
2) The massive, continuously inbound (to US) capital flows, primarily from Europe - Upward pressure.

Driven by the rapidly unraveling globalization (driven by a Europe which the US decided to turn into a bonfire that is now clearly visible from Alpha-Centauri, and a China which is dying of old age as the demographic apocalypse is hitting hard this year - 2023), these fundamental forces will likely make this year one for the records - especially when it comes index (equities) trading.
Many, many trading opportunities to be expected, throughout this year, probably far more than in other periods.

Laissez le bon temp roule!! ...

Ghi chú

This thing is certainly at the cross roads and March is usually not an especially a good month for equities. HOWEVER, all signs here point to a Long Bias, coinciding with similar buy signals in the Nasdaq (NQ).
At this moment in time, this is an excellent place to enter LONG, given the clarity of the signals. This also means that very tight Stops can be utilized at these levels since any break, in either direction, is likely to be decisive. Thus, take advantage of this fact and load hard but with very tight stops - providing excellent R/R ratios in either direction. One must stay nimble here but opportunities abound.

Ghi chú

Buy it up! - LONG

Ghi chú

On an additional note;

This looks like its breaking out to the top side. This is normally bullish for the equity indexes.

Giao dịch được đóng thủ công

Made some money here but ...

FLAT, for now.

Ghi chú

Da trading plan;

Short for now BUT get ready to buy up that Stop Hunt @3840 - something fierce!!

Đóng lệnh: dừng lỗ

FLAT - for now. (-8 pts)

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

Buy it up! - LONG

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

LONG

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

Buy it up! - LONG
(Bought an awful lot of ESJ 4200 Calls, yesterday, at the bottom.)

Ghi chú

There is an awful lot hanging over this;

SHORT

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

SHORT

Ghi chú

This broke out (2 days ago) ...

... and so, it continues to be highly tradeable!! (Just follow the arrows.)
By the end of May the outcome of the purported Ukrainian "Spring offensive" should be quite visible, as well (unlikely to be beneficial for the US & Allies), making for a decisive, final (secondary) top in global equities.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

Just follow the arrows.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

This is a SHORT, right here!
How could one tell? ...
From this (NQ/SP);

... and, further more, this concurs, as well;

Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu

Chances of an Index rally are quite high here because of this;

Switched to LONG for now with extremely tight stops!

Giao dịch được đóng thủ công

FLAT for now.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

Massive SHORT

Ghi chú

This sucker is done!

LEAN INTO IT!! - SHORT

Ghi chú

Chances are ...

Ghi chú

Where was the SP500 at the end of April (2023)? ...

... and the year before that? ...
... and the year before that??

Ghi chú

“… and to ask whether we are in a bull market or a bear market is like asking Christopher Columbus whether he thinks the trees at the edge of the Earth are maples or pines.”
… not to mention, that the fundamental lack of an “end” attribute to the Earth itself easily supercedes any potentially ensuing biological classification debate.

“Of course, there is always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern itself with the why or wherefore. It doesn’t go into explanations. I didn’t ask the tape why when I was fourteen, and I don’t ask it today at forty.” – Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

SHORT

Ghi chú

Continued from above - the Daily;

In other news ... Blasts from the past with strong, present day connotations;

The Nifty Fifty - Blue Chip performance between 1973-1974;
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Du Pont -58.4%
Exxon -46.9%
Ford Motor -64.8%
General Electric -60.5%
General Motors -71.2%
Goodyear -63.0%
IBM -58.8%
McDonalds -72.4%
Mobil -59.8%
Motorola -54.3%
PepsiCo -67.0%
Philip Morris -50.3%
Polaroid -90.2%
Sears -66.2%
Sony -80.9%
Westinghouse -83.1%

Market periods during the past 100 years in which US Treasury Bonds outperformed the total, net return of the S&P 500 ;
----------------------------------------------
1929-1950, 1968-1987 and 1998-2020.
I.e. a total of 43 years out of 95 (starting from 1928) or in 45% of the time!

Ghi chú

This is clearly a mixed bag, at this point;

With the massive flight of the European heavy industrial base to US soil, it is a "European aid package" pouring into the US, the likes that rarely - if ever - seen in the past. - And there is no end in sight.

... and while the Nasdaq is clearly topping out here;

SHORT

There is every logical reason to expect the most sizable rotation of all.
E.g., This is the one to watch;

... which is clearly topping out here, as well.

Ghi chú

An other telling spread to look at is this one;

... which is clearly in a down-trend.
Normally, this one should be in an up-trend if one was to anticipate future S&P strength but (way!) over-leverage being where it is, this is also indicative of the massive de-levering that must take place before any fundamental value is represented by any of the equity indexes. (I.e. a -50% indexes decline, at some point before the next cycle, is a foregone conclusion!)

Ghi chú

What d'ya thenk, Long or Short Bias?? ...
(... and No, there isn't a 4th option! ;-)

Ghi chú

This one is now just clinging to the remnants of an already burst bubble;

... making that 4630 an awfully fat Short Entry target - if it even gets there?
Play it as it lays but just keep looking down!

Ghi chú

According to the best mathematician in the world

Scott Carney's "Deep Crab" & the Fields Medal in Mathematics

there is an upcoming Short here;

I'll bite!

Ghi chú

DJIA/Gold;

Interestingly, this eerily (but not all that surprisingly) matches exactly the projected 12 year (full-cycle; correlation coeff. -> 0 in 12.5 years) nominal return of a traditional portfolio mix (60/30/10 SP500 + T-Bonds + T-Bills). E.g., The DJIA (and the SP500 and the Nasdaq) is expected to lose 56% of it's value. (Those are all expected to end up in the same place.)

Ghi chú

Upon closer examination of the DJIA/Gold (above);

There is already a clearly visible break (dispersion) in this spread - normally an indication of equities falling into a 'stochastic sink'. (Translation: Narrow equities leadership aimlessly jumping around before a radical shift, e.g. a phase-transition)

Ghi chú

US (and World) Equity Indexes are in full rotation;

... at the end of which they all point to the mid-2019 lows - I.e, -50%, across the board. (Nasdaq leadership works both ways! ;-)

Ghi chú

A notable aspect of cypher patterns' is that they frequently indicate a lateral move across price channels - as is the case here. This would also imply that once such a lateral move is completed anywhere other than at the bottom supporting trend line, it is often the mark of price extremes, foreshadowing a major price reversal. When this happens on long(er) time frames (as is the case here), it is an accurate forecast of such a price extremes 71%-83% of the time (dependent on the cypher pattern in question).
Naturally, the Nasdaq is already leading the equities reversal - and thus, it is the preferred SHORT for now.

Ghi chú

The big-picture - Quarterly - view of the SP500;

It is a typical picture where it is trying to cling to the suds of yesterday's already burst bubble. SHORT

Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu

We have hit our Long Target here, exactly, for +632 pts in net profits.
Now well padded with fresh cash, it is time to turn around and go SHORT

Ghi chú

Chances are ...

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

SHORT

Ghi chú

All aboard!

Nice, symmetric reaction. Massive SHORT

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

This looks extremely topish here! (Inline with the other equity indexes.)

SHORT

Ghi chú

There is also a decisive break going on in here, for quite some time now;

... which is just one more bad omen for equities.

Ghi chú

A decisive technical break down.

Ghi chú

As is often the case with these wave formations ...

... the Time & Price forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate.
The "mandatory" 38%-50% retrecement of the last leg almost completed, continue to load SHORT off of the 50 period ema.

Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu

Considering the season and the bottom of the channel ...

... we covered our Shorts here and took +140 pts profit off the table, for now.
FLAT. Wait-and-see ...

Ghi chú

Not very complicated.

Ghi chú

Traveling by-the-numbers, exactly! - As this has been doing for about a year, by now.
Continue to lean into it Short!

p.s. For some strange reason there seems to be a debate out there whether a H&S exists in the SP500? ...
"It doesn't really matter", would be one correct answer, since the Russel2000 has completed one, already! E.g. all equities are in a confirmed, full dive!

Ghi chú

After having filled that Gap, chances are ... Follow the arrows!

Ghi chú

Nice reaction at all the right places.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động

Look at them arrows! ;-)

It doesn't get any easier than this.

Ghi chú

Nasdaq [NQ] - SHORT

Chugging right along.

Ghi chú

Still SHORT but tightening those Stops, a lot as this is getting close to the PRZ!
If you followed us then you're also up a cool +400 pts just since Sept. 23😎

Nemo_Confidat

Ngoài ra, trên:

Bài đăng liên quan

Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm

Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.