Sunday Prep 8/08 - $SPY/$ES

Last week we tested the 20d and held, followed by immediately heading right back to ATHs. That 4364 area is gaining some significance. This coming week I will be watching for extension up towards the monthly pivot at 4466.75 as the first area of resistance. After that nothing really stands between us and 4500. Any flushes towards the 20d and that 4364 area will be assumed to be solid support. Flushes to those levels will offer high probability setups for bounce plays on strong stocks pulling back to support. If we breach that 4364 area then I would look to the 50d as the next area where I would expect trustworthy support to show up.

One key thing to point out though is that the weekly 20sma now lines up with the low from July. Any flush down to those levels will offer support as well. I still think if we break below July’s lows, it’s a significant red flag, but it definitely wouldn’t be the end of the bull run. It’s just one domino that would need to fall in a whole row of dominoes.