Either scenario #1 or #2 should play out, if #2 I would load up!
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I took a second look at the previous downtrend, it took approximately 11d 17h to play out and contact the downward trendline 4 times, then on the 5th it broke through shortly after the fourth. Assuming the past is predictive of future events, we still have some consolidating price action before what I expect to be a pretty massive breakout.
As always, this is not financial advice, just my personal opinion/analysis, as well as positions that I personally take.
As always, this is not financial advice, just my personal opinion/analysis, as well as positions that I personally take.
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Last update for today: as we speak ETH is trying to breach the downward trendline, looking at the order book depth, there seem to be a lot more sellers than buyers at the table at the moment so the 640-648 range should be defensible. However, if it we're to breach with significant momentum I would flip to a fully long position, especially if it retests the downward slope and it flips as support.
BTC seems to be pulling everything up, but I see minor weakness in ETH/ALTS with the exception of LTC. With a small pullback in BTC my strategy will play out. I have tight stops though as if BTC continues to run though reaching ATM, I'll likely get stopped out of all shorts I'm in.