EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1120 Ahead of Crucial Fed Rate ...

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EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1120 Ahead of Crucial Fed Rate Decision

As the first London session kicks off this morning, EUR/USD is maintaining its position above the 1.1120 level, with market participants eagerly awaiting today's Federal Funds Rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The decision is set to dominate market sentiment, with investors and traders closely watching for any signs of policy shifts or forward guidance.

Current Market Sentiment

From a technical standpoint, not much has changed since our previous analysis. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report continues to highlight a significant divergence between retail traders and institutional investors. Retail traders remain overwhelmingly long on the pair, suggesting their optimism for further upside. However, "smart money," often represented by institutional traders, continues to take a bearish stance, positioning themselves for potential downside.

This disparity in positioning further adds to the uncertainty surrounding EUR/USD’s near-term trajectory. As the pair trades within a daily supply zone, the potential for a bearish reversal remains on the table. The supply zone, which has acted as a resistance level, continues to cap any significant bullish advances, keeping the risk of a sharp pullback intact.

Fed Decision: The Key Catalyst

All eyes remain on the Federal Reserve’s policy verdict, which could serve as the key driver for the next move in EUR/USD. The Fed's decision on interest rates, along with its forward guidance, will likely dictate the pair's direction in the coming days. A more hawkish stance from the Fed could fuel U.S. dollar strength, potentially pushing EUR/USD lower. Conversely, any dovish signals might provide the pair with a fresh catalyst for breaking through the current resistance levels.

For now, EUR/USD continues to hover above 1.1120, but the looming Fed decision may be the tipping point that decides whether the pair resumes its bullish momentum or succumbs to the bearish sentiment from institutional traders.


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