The US pushes oil up, and HSE predicts the ruble fall

23 thg 4, 2019

Latest information about the US. The USA intends to reduce oil exports from Iran to 0. Thus, the upward movement in the oil market received a new impetus. So, our attempt to catch the correction at the very top was clearly premature. But first things first.

According to the Washington Post, the United States no longer intends to grant preferential permission to buy Iranian oil to any country. Earlier, 8 countries were granted benefits in the form of the possibility of buying Iranian oil without sanctions from the United States. But according to current information from May 2, preferential permits will be canceled.

What does this mean for the oil market? By some estimates - a loss of about 1 million b / d. (before US sanctions, Iranian oil exports amounted to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day. After November, exports decreased to 1 million barrels per day.). This is a very serious volume. So the growth of quotations is more than reasonable.

In response, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of all oil supplies pass.

Considering this news and the fact that the resistance level of 64.50 (WTI mark) was broken down, we decided to return the recommendation to “buy” oil. And we are planning to look for points for buying the asset on the intraday basis.

Such news does not help calm the financial markets. Indeed, in theory, China, India, and Turkey, unlike the other 4 countries from the list of beneficiaries, may well rebel. In particular, China has already announced that it is going to continue to buy Iranian oil. In this light, another of our recommendations is of particular relevance. It is about buying gold. An additional argument in favor of buying gold can be called a series of terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka.

The Russian ruble reached its maximum for the year yesterday. In our opinion, this is an excellent reason for its sales. It cannot get any better than this. Moreover, according to HSE experts, in 2019 capital outflows from Russia will amount to $ 40- $ 50 billion, which will lead to a currency deficit, and in this case, the dollar to the ruble exchange rate will rise to 68-70 in the second half of the year.

About our trading preferences, we note that we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar on the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are buying), buying gold and oil on the commodity markets, and in addition, we will continue to sell the Russian ruble.