Even writing this I’m thinking it could be a crazy idea with USD strength in play, but let’s see...
I think we’ll see some early weakness from the USD before a momentum shift that will see DXY reverse up (maybe by end of the week). I think the EURO is still looking strong, bouncing back from the falling following the ECB rate hike pause. ECB are hawkish around further hikes and USD CPI numbers this week may indicate a pause is coming from the FED, this idea may have played out by then. I’ll be tightening my SL at 13.30 GMT this Thursday.
So for now looking to go long provided we breakout and retest the falling trendline on the daily from the 1.275 high. We’ve been in a strong uptrend for months and I think the moves in the next few weeks could start to show reversal back down, but for now we still have higher highs and higher lows, support held nicely last week and had confluence to not break the 100 and 200 EMA on the daily, so I'm still bullish with this one for now.
I’ll hopefully be tp’ing around 1.124 to see if we get a double top or continuation up, which would bring the 1.14 centre line of the rising channel quickly into play (which could well happen if the US CPI is better / lower than expectation).
I think we’ll see some early weakness from the USD before a momentum shift that will see DXY reverse up (maybe by end of the week). I think the EURO is still looking strong, bouncing back from the falling following the ECB rate hike pause. ECB are hawkish around further hikes and USD CPI numbers this week may indicate a pause is coming from the FED, this idea may have played out by then. I’ll be tightening my SL at 13.30 GMT this Thursday.
So for now looking to go long provided we breakout and retest the falling trendline on the daily from the 1.275 high. We’ve been in a strong uptrend for months and I think the moves in the next few weeks could start to show reversal back down, but for now we still have higher highs and higher lows, support held nicely last week and had confluence to not break the 100 and 200 EMA on the daily, so I'm still bullish with this one for now.
I’ll hopefully be tp’ing around 1.124 to see if we get a double top or continuation up, which would bring the 1.14 centre line of the rising channel quickly into play (which could well happen if the US CPI is better / lower than expectation).