EURUSD towards lower edge of the 6-week-long upward channel

EURUSD has been range bound since last 6 weeks in an upward channel.
It has now touched the lower edge of the channel now.

I would open a SHORT position if it breaks down the channel. It may go till area of around 1.4800. If it bounce up again, I would go LONG as it may then go above the 1.20 levels.