GBPJPY down?

As we can see a down trend generally on the GBPJPY chart, currently the pair is retracing in an bullish direction, using Fib retracement 0.382 appears to be a common level of resistance when the currency pair has retraced. we also see in the chart above a structure of lower lows and lower highs, all this with the evidence that the 2 EMA lines look as though they are going to start coming together indicates a retracement which would make the next lower high, all this confluences together to indicate once retracement has happened and a new lower high, the currency pair will then continue its downward trend

First time publishing as a beginner and any advice to benefit my analysis is greatly appreciated, let me know what you all think,
thanks