In this news article, it's hinted that May will talk about a Hard Brexit in her Tuesday speech, which would give the bears some ammo to drive the pair down with momentum: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-15/may-to-seek-hard-brexit-by-leaving-eu-market-says-sunday-times
The fundamentals are strong for the dollar, and on a basis, the US dollar has the upper hand, both fundamentally and technically, which favors trades in the $GBPUSD pair.
Downside targets are signaled on chart. We have:
- 11 week 'Time at Mode' downtrend signal, confirmed on close last Friday, target is 1.13436 initially, to be hit before March 24th ideally.
- 13 day downtrend, continuation of the decline after the US dollar interest rate hike on December which kicked the decline off. After recently breaking down under the Presidential election key level and retesting it at the recent top, the Pound accelerated down, flashing the technical signal in my previous publication. It retested resistance and confirmed a daily downtrend on Friday. Targets are 1.18864 and 1.17693, to be achieved by Jan 31st or sooner. Keep an eye on these levels for a potential reaction in price. Also watch the strange flash crash day key levels, and the high and low of that day, since it may prove to be significant once again, although it's still a mystery what caused that event.
A move above 1.21717 would invalidate the daily signal, and above 1.23854 the weekly signal would be rendered a failure, and immediate upside implied on a breakout of this resistance. Upside for such an event would be huge, since it would squeeze bears big time, sending the Pound up to 1.34406. I labeled this on chart, but it would be a shocking turn of events, and a lower probability. I'm open to going long if we break above this weekly zone, since the squeeze would result in a profitable trade, offsetting loss from trades.
I think we will have good continuation here.
My instinct tells me: this week, do squat...the action is pure and utter rubbish, only manipulation during a thin market.
I'd short $EURGBP eventually, but not long $GBPUSD.
You're a bit biased perhaps, living in the UK (I guess).
I just read it different than you. That is all. No big deal. Most import thing is we both make money from it. You got the last push down right! I did not see that. You did... In my book that makes you a +++. You saw something I did not see. Why I watch what you do. Sometime I agree with you and sometime I do not...
I was under the impression you were british, my bad.
Thanks for the comments as usual, always good to discuss with fellow traders.
Anyways, stay on the + side daily Ivan!!! We all have our opinions...