GBPUSD holds firm despite hawkish FOMC minutes

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UK inflation data for April showed a slower-than-expected decrease in consumer inflation. However, services inflation, which has been persistently high, exceeded the estimated level predicted by analysts and economists. This unexpected outcome caused a delay in the expected rate cut from August to November, with only one rate cut now anticipated for this year. As a result, the pound and Gilt yields increased, leading to a rise in GBP/USD.

GBP/USD briefly rose above 1.2736 but was pulled back down by hawkish FOMC minutes. It is now trading higher again, showing resilience around the 1.2736 level. With both the BoE and Fed leaning towards a more hawkish stance, a significant move may be challenging without another catalyst. The upcoming US PCE data at the end of next week could provide that catalyst. For now, the pound is pushing higher.

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Ghi chú

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Ghi chú

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is receiving significant support around 1.2670, corresponding to the 50 EMA and close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement threshold of the uptrend from April. Further down will be the 1.2600 area, corresponding with the 200 EMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

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Ghi chú

Since touching the support area of ​​1.2600, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci threshold calculated based on the increase from April, GBP/USD has continuously increased to near the peak of June, and at the same time entered the strong resistance area of ​​1.2800-1.2900. Therefore, the increased selling pressure is quite understandable.

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Ghi chú

Although the monetary policy differences between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) are still the main factor creating fluctuations in GBP/USD, the return of the USD on a large scale due to risk aversion has ruined the "party" of the British pound.