GOLD Monthly chart’s “Rally & Tell”
Just to recap again...
1. In early 2013, a “friend” brought me to a gathering, where the charismatic speaker claimed he was told that Gold would be tracking higher than the last high, etc. There was a following who dumped everything and loaded up on Gold then. I never went back because I saw the opposite. Clearly, from the chart, I was not wrong, although I was apparently the only one at that time to be bearish on Gold. Chided and ran over I was... I left Gold alone for a long time. Clearly, this “friend” never came back to speak to me for very obvious reasons.
2. In August 2018, I started tracking Gold closely (having left it aside since the last high in 2013), and this was due to an Enquiries for my opinion by a long time friend who suddenly was keen to accumulate Gold. Since then, I saw a multi-year opportunity and wrote about it in my Gold Odyssey blog chapter until I migrated over to TradingView. The patterns observed since then are drawn here. Namely, a multi-year Cup & Handle. Previous idea posts depict the last two years worth of experience in technicals and in real trades.
3. The projection to Gold at USD2000 was observed since last year, particularly after Trump declared a trade war by imposition of trade tariffs.
4. Gold exceeded the target by almost 5%, particularly in 2020. So where to now?
From the monthly chart, few things catch my eye...
Firstly, the candlestick pattern of August. With a 5%ish long shadow above the candle, practitioners would read for a following down candle in September. While early into September, price retraced enough to find the first support of 1930(-1950). This area is significant historically as it was the 2011 rejected high. Probabilities stack up against staying above this level, although most of the analysis by others yelp about the support to bounce. Clearly, I am a lot more bearish in this view (similar to 2013) and perhaps I am one of the few seeing this as a possible move towards 1500, possibly to 1400 at the lowest point. Unthinkable.
Secondly, the MACD is burnig out in the rate of acceleration, and with a huge range of volatility, it looks to be able to pull back to 1800 with little effort and time, and even to 1500 (white support line).
Thirdly, 1800 is a good support for a very bullish case. But the C&H pattern might need a deeper retracement to 1600 or below.
Fourth, around the toppish area, the net interest of non-commercials (orange line, lower panel) and Top 8 Traders (yellow line, lower panel), all point to lowered interest, encouraging more downside.
Fifth, outside of this chart, the USD is setting up a strong bullish bounce back, having almost waterfalled over the past months. This would definitely put pressure on Gold prices, as well as any USD denominated commodities.
Fifth, it appears to be a time of moderation as all other asset classes are reacting, including cryptocurrencies.
Lastly, the seasonal cycle is aligned for Gold to rotate lower from now till end of year, possibly extending into February next year. As projected by the handle of the cup.
Whichever way Gold is going, there is definitely robust (up) trend, and being aware of the bigger picture helps going forward... as it clearly did over the past two years.
IF the Cup & Handle pattern plays out... just imagine the multi year target price upon breakout. 😳😉
1. In early 2013, a “friend” brought me to a gathering, where the charismatic speaker claimed he was told that Gold would be tracking higher than the last high, etc. There was a following who dumped everything and loaded up on Gold then. I never went back because I saw the opposite. Clearly, from the chart, I was not wrong, although I was apparently the only one at that time to be bearish on Gold. Chided and ran over I was... I left Gold alone for a long time. Clearly, this “friend” never came back to speak to me for very obvious reasons.
2. In August 2018, I started tracking Gold closely (having left it aside since the last high in 2013), and this was due to an Enquiries for my opinion by a long time friend who suddenly was keen to accumulate Gold. Since then, I saw a multi-year opportunity and wrote about it in my Gold Odyssey blog chapter until I migrated over to TradingView. The patterns observed since then are drawn here. Namely, a multi-year Cup & Handle. Previous idea posts depict the last two years worth of experience in technicals and in real trades.
3. The projection to Gold at USD2000 was observed since last year, particularly after Trump declared a trade war by imposition of trade tariffs.
4. Gold exceeded the target by almost 5%, particularly in 2020. So where to now?
From the monthly chart, few things catch my eye...
Firstly, the candlestick pattern of August. With a 5%ish long shadow above the candle, practitioners would read for a following down candle in September. While early into September, price retraced enough to find the first support of 1930(-1950). This area is significant historically as it was the 2011 rejected high. Probabilities stack up against staying above this level, although most of the analysis by others yelp about the support to bounce. Clearly, I am a lot more bearish in this view (similar to 2013) and perhaps I am one of the few seeing this as a possible move towards 1500, possibly to 1400 at the lowest point. Unthinkable.
Secondly, the MACD is burnig out in the rate of acceleration, and with a huge range of volatility, it looks to be able to pull back to 1800 with little effort and time, and even to 1500 (white support line).
Thirdly, 1800 is a good support for a very bullish case. But the C&H pattern might need a deeper retracement to 1600 or below.
Fourth, around the toppish area, the net interest of non-commercials (orange line, lower panel) and Top 8 Traders (yellow line, lower panel), all point to lowered interest, encouraging more downside.
Fifth, outside of this chart, the USD is setting up a strong bullish bounce back, having almost waterfalled over the past months. This would definitely put pressure on Gold prices, as well as any USD denominated commodities.
Fifth, it appears to be a time of moderation as all other asset classes are reacting, including cryptocurrencies.
Lastly, the seasonal cycle is aligned for Gold to rotate lower from now till end of year, possibly extending into February next year. As projected by the handle of the cup.
Whichever way Gold is going, there is definitely robust (up) trend, and being aware of the bigger picture helps going forward... as it clearly did over the past two years.
IF the Cup & Handle pattern plays out... just imagine the multi year target price upon breakout. 😳😉
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