Recent gold moves resemble the 2012-2013 top

With bonds rallying a bit, it's possible we will see gold break upward out of its recent downtrend. I can't help but compare gold's recent moves to the 2012-2013 top in gold. We look to be making a very similar pattern, but on a compressed time scale. Long term this comparison implies that gold will move downward from here, but short term, if the comparison holds, we could see a rally through the first resistance line to at least make a test of the second resistance line.

Personally, rather than buy gold directly, I've bought some Barrick Gold. I figure if I'm going to bet on gold, I might as well get a stock with a dividend. (I'm also just better at placing valuations on equities than on metals, so I usually prefer to bet on metals indirectly by buying stocks.) I should note that buying miners works a little differently than directly buying metals, because geopolitical events that are good for gold are sometimes bad for miners because they negatively impact production. In any case, Barrick has been in a downtrend along with gold, and may also make an upward break through resistance:

I have bought in anticipation of a breakout, but another way to play is to set an alert on the resistance line and buy after a breakout has occurred.

Bình luận:

GLD remains below its trend line, though it has moved upward toward a test:

Barrick Gold, however, popped through its trend line today:

Bình luận:

Trend line on GLD just got breached:

Bình luận:

Finally seeing a little decisiveness in the upward move from both GLD and GOLD