GLPG.BR completing 3rd wave up off the Dec low
TLDR: targeting 80 if next pull back holds 56.
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Galapagos has gained more than 50% nominally off the Dec '21 low, in a three waves structure.
While running into the 1.618 extension of the green circle i-ii, the technicals are becoming overbought.
With the next earning report within a month, it seems wise to take some profits off the tabel.
Further more, the 65 region also happens to be near:
- an important volume wedge on the weekly ~68 EUR;
- the orange 2.0-2.618 extension, a typical target range for the impulsive subwave v of circle iii;
- the 0.236 retracement of the higher degree correction started in Feb 2020, before the covid crash;
Therefor resistance is expected, a pull back could be starting soon.
Assuming we are topping somewhere between the green 1.618-1.764 extension, ideally the pull back holds above 57-58 region as circle iv to jump start circle v targeting 80 region.
A drop under 56 will be the first warning that this rally is topped in three waves, while dropping under 52 will have me reconsider whether there is any bullish potential left in the near term.
Bigger picture (monthly chart: tradingview.com/x/MbthfEHW/)
Off the ATH struct in Feb '20, GLPG has corrected more than 80% nominally, but when putting it in logarithmic perspective, it was merely a 0.382 retracement after a phenomenal run from 2.74 to 250.9, almost 100x in 12 years. The long term trend line has never been violated, and the monthly technicals are trying to turn upward again.
Now that we are back to a make-or-break level like the dips in 2011 and 2014, the stop limit to the down side is clearly defined while the potential upside is still beyond imagination.
A hard stop should be placed just under 44, as given the tiny volume in between, the next long term support will likely not be found until 0.618 retracement ~15 EUR.
Conclusion: with 0.382 retracement from ATH ~45 EUR as long term support, maintaining immediate bullish bias as long as next pull back holds above 56.
--
Galapagos has gained more than 50% nominally off the Dec '21 low, in a three waves structure.
While running into the 1.618 extension of the green circle i-ii, the technicals are becoming overbought.
With the next earning report within a month, it seems wise to take some profits off the tabel.
Further more, the 65 region also happens to be near:
- an important volume wedge on the weekly ~68 EUR;
- the orange 2.0-2.618 extension, a typical target range for the impulsive subwave v of circle iii;
- the 0.236 retracement of the higher degree correction started in Feb 2020, before the covid crash;
Therefor resistance is expected, a pull back could be starting soon.
Assuming we are topping somewhere between the green 1.618-1.764 extension, ideally the pull back holds above 57-58 region as circle iv to jump start circle v targeting 80 region.
A drop under 56 will be the first warning that this rally is topped in three waves, while dropping under 52 will have me reconsider whether there is any bullish potential left in the near term.
Bigger picture (monthly chart: tradingview.com/x/MbthfEHW/)
Off the ATH struct in Feb '20, GLPG has corrected more than 80% nominally, but when putting it in logarithmic perspective, it was merely a 0.382 retracement after a phenomenal run from 2.74 to 250.9, almost 100x in 12 years. The long term trend line has never been violated, and the monthly technicals are trying to turn upward again.
Now that we are back to a make-or-break level like the dips in 2011 and 2014, the stop limit to the down side is clearly defined while the potential upside is still beyond imagination.
A hard stop should be placed just under 44, as given the tiny volume in between, the next long term support will likely not be found until 0.618 retracement ~15 EUR.
Conclusion: with 0.382 retracement from ATH ~45 EUR as long term support, maintaining immediate bullish bias as long as next pull back holds above 56.
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