Closing the session last week (July 14) the world gold price was at 1,954.30 USD/ounce, down 5.7 USD compared to the previous session.
The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) remains the most prominent driver in the market. Both CPI and PPI last week cooled down more than expected. Consumer prices rose 3.0% on the year, the lowest annual gain since March 2021. At the same time, core inflation increased 4.8% on the year last month.
The good news for consumers is that inflation is definitely on track; however, they remain high, which means the Fed may not be ready to declare victory in the battle against higher consumer prices. But now we are nearing the end, breathing new life into the market.
The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) remains the most prominent driver in the market. Both CPI and PPI last week cooled down more than expected. Consumer prices rose 3.0% on the year, the lowest annual gain since March 2021. At the same time, core inflation increased 4.8% on the year last month.
The good news for consumers is that inflation is definitely on track; however, they remain high, which means the Fed may not be ready to declare victory in the battle against higher consumer prices. But now we are nearing the end, breathing new life into the market.
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The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) remains the most prominent driver in the market. Both CPI and PPI last week cooled down more than expected. Consumer prices rose 3.0% on the year, the lowest annual gain since March 2021. At the same time, core inflation increased 4.8% on the year last month.
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“Connecting to what I looked at last week, the bulls have finally taken that next step to break through the resistance level after,” said James Stanley, market strategist at StoneX. Support holds at $1,900.”
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Last week, 20 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey. As a result, 45% of analysts believe that gold prices will increase in the near term. 45% of analysts think gold prices may move sideways. Only 10% of analysts think gold prices will fall in the near term.
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Even so, neither Wall Street analysts nor Main Street retail investors are expecting a major breakout.
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The Fed is still planning to raise rates at least twice this year, with market expectations for the July meeting a 96% chance of a 0.25% increase. The amount of the second rate hike is yet to be determined, which is why analysts remain cautious on gold in the short term.
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Range-bound price action can still be classified as a bullish consolidation phase and warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful corrective decline from one-month highs touched on Friday.
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Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex New York exchange rose slightly by 0.6 USD, or 0.03%, to 1,964.4 USD/ounce.
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The gold market will remain very sensitive to the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, according to analysts.
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On the stock market, in the trading session of July 14, VN-Index increased slightly. At the end of the session, the VN-Index increased by 2.98 points to 1,168.4 points. HNX-Index increased 0.22 points to 230.19 points. UPCoM-Index increased 0.08 points to 86.29 points.
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Looking at the review action over the past few weeks, James Stanley, market strategist at StoneX, forecasts gold to test the $1,980 resistance in the near term.
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Looking at the price action over the past few weeks, James Stanley, market strategist at StoneX, sees gold testing the $1,980 resistance in the near term.
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Market assessment, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), at its meeting on July 25-26, will raise interest rates to 5-5.25%, before "freezing" interest rates and will to cut interest rates by 2024.
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Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, as it is an asset that does not yield a return.
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Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the most hawkish member of the FOMC, announced on July 13 in favor of one rally this month and another before it ends in 2023, he said. likely to offer the FOMC a second rate hike in September or later this year depending on upcoming economic data.
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Twenty Wall Street analysts participated in Kitco News' gold survey. The ratio of gold price forecast to increase and move sideways this week is at 45%, while the remaining 10% is forecast to decrease.
