Price Action:
• Trading within a well-defined rising wedge pattern from February 2025 to July 2025
• The stock experienced a significant decline from its peak around ₹3,035 in September 2024 to a low of ₹2,136 in March 2025
• Currently trading at ₹2,521.20 with a gain of ₹83.80 (+3.44%)
• The stock appears to be attempting a breakout from the upper trendline of the rising wedge
Volume Spread Analysis:
• Volume has been relatively subdued during the consolidation phase within the wedge
• Recent sessions show increased volume activity with 5.51M shares traded, indicating renewed interest
• The volume pattern suggests accumulation during the lower levels of the wedge formation
• Volume spike accompanies the current breakout attempt, confirming the move
Key Technical Levels:
Key Support Levels:
• Immediate support: ₹2,420-₹2,450 (recent consolidation zone)
• Strong support: ₹2,300-₹2,350 (lower trendline of the rising wedge)
• Critical support: ₹2,136 (52-week low established in March 2025)
Resistance Levels:
• Immediate resistance: ₹2,550-₹2,580 (upper trendline breakout zone)
• Next resistance: ₹2,700-₹2,750 (previous swing highs)
• Major resistance: ₹3,035 (52-week high from September 2024)
Technical Patterns:
• Rising Wedge Pattern: A bearish reversal pattern that has been forming since Feb 2025
• Breakout Attempt: The stock is testing the upper boundary of the rising wedge with increased volume
• Higher Lows Formation: Despite the wedge pattern, the stock has been making higher lows since March 2025
Trade Setup:
Entry Strategy:
• Primary Entry: On sustained breakout above ₹2,550 with volume confirmation
• Secondary Entry: On pullback to ₹2,480-₹2,500 after successful breakout
• Aggressive Entry: Current levels around ₹2,520 for short-term traders
Exit Levels:
• Target 1: ₹2,680-₹2,700 (8-10% upside potential)
• Target 2: ₹2,850-₹2,900 (15-18% upside potential)
• Target 3: ₹3,000-₹3,050 (20-25% upside potential)
Stop-Loss Strategy:
• Conservative: ₹2,350 (below the rising wedge support)
• Moderate: ₹2,420 (below immediate support zone)
• Tight: ₹2,480 (for breakout trades)
Position Sizing:
• Conservative investors: 2-3% of portfolio allocation
• Moderate risk appetite: 4-5% of portfolio allocation
• Aggressive traders: 6-8% of portfolio allocation
Risk Management:
• Risk-Reward Ratio: Maintain a minimum 1:2 ratio for all entries
• Trailing Stop: Implement a 5-7% trailing stop after 10% gains
• Partial Profit Booking: Book 30% profits at Target 1, 40% at Target 2, and hold 30% for Target 3
Sectoral and Fundamental Backdrop:
FMCG Sector Overview:
• BSE FMCG index was up 1 per cent, as compared to a 0.5 per cent decline in the BSE Sensex
• The FMCG sector is showing resilience amid broader market volatility
• Rural demand recovery is expected to support sector growth in the coming quarters
Financial Performance:
• TTM Revenue: 63,928 Cr, TTM Profit: 10,827 Cr
• The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 10% over the past five years
• Annual revenue for March 2025 reached Rs 63,121 Crore, up 2%. Net profit rose 3.8% to Rs 10,671 Crore
Valuation Metrics:
• HUL's stock trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio around 55.70x, slightly below its historical averages (~61x over 5 years)
• Stock is trading at 12 times its book value
• Market Cap: 5,92,476 Crore (down -6.82% in 1 year)
Business Fundamentals:
• Promoter Holding: 61.9%
• Strong brand portfolio across multiple FMCG categories
• Extensive distribution network covering both urban and rural markets
• Urban markets contribute 60 per cent to HUL's sales, while rural markets comprise the rest
Recent Developments:
• Motilal Oswal analysts believe that volume growth for HUL has reached its lowest point and foresee a gradual recovery in volumes during FY25
• Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate HUL's net profit to decline 1.2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) on average, to ₹2,540.6 crore
• The company is expected to benefit from improving rural demand and premiumization trends
My Take:
• HUL remains a defensive play in the FMCG space with strong market positioning
• The technical breakout attempt coincides with expectations of volume recovery
• Long-term investors can consider accumulating on dips while traders can play the breakout momentum
Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR.
NO RECO. For Buy/Sell.
📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable.
🙏FOLLOW for more
👍BOOST if you found it useful.
✍️COMMENT below with your views.
Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback.
Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
Bài đăng liên quan
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.
Bài đăng liên quan
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.